This week, a frontpage headline in i newspaper was stark: “Tories losing voters to Farage amid anger over high migration.” The story was presented as a bolt, not so much from the blue as directed at it. It reported 11 per cent support for Reform UK, the successor to Ukip and the Brexit Party, in a poll by BMG. Richard Tice, the leader of Reform, kept the story going by telling PoliticsHome that Conservative MPs should be “shitting in their pants”.
In fact, a number of other polls in recent weeks have put Reform at 10 or 11 per cent. Nevertheless, given that most of its support comes from pro-Brexit voters who backed the Conservatives in 2019, the picture looks bleak for the Conservatives.
The thing is, I’m not sure this picture is accurate. To be sure, even a few hundred votes for Reform in key marginals would cost the Tories seats. The Conservatives need to suppress Reform’s vote as much as possible. My point is not that Reform poses no threat, but that the size of that threat has been exaggerated.
The reason is that the pollsters do not quite all agree. I’ll come to the reason in a moment; but here are the latest figures for Reform from each company: Deltapoll: 6 per cent, Savanta: 7 per cent; More in Common, Opinium, Techne and We Think: 8 per cent; Redfield & Wilton and YouGov: 10per cent; BMG and People Polling: 11 per cent. Ten companies all within sampling-error range of 9 per cent.
There is, though, an eleventh company that has reported a much lower number, and has done so all year. Ipsos’s latest poll has Reform on just 4 per cent. At no point this year has it reported a higher figure; for most of the year it has been just 2 or 3 per cent. If Ipsos is right, then the Tories still have a problem, but no need to panic.
Here is what is happening. When pollsters ask about voting intention, they give a list of parties. Typically they split the list in two. For example, YouGov’s first list is:
Conservative
Labour
Liberal Democrat
SNP (in Scotland)/ Plaid Cymru (in Wales)
Reform UK
Green
Some other party
Would not vote
Don’t know
Refused
Respondents who tick “some other party” are then taken to a fresh list (this is the current list; it varies from time to time):
Ukip
Women’s Equality Party
Some other party
Don’t know
Refused
Here is Ipsos’s first list:
Conservative
Labour
Liberal Democrats
Scottish National Party (If in Scotland)
Plaid Cymru (If in Wales)
Another party
Undecided
Would not vote
Refused
Here is Ipsos’s follow-up list for those who say “another party”:
Green Party
UK Independence Party
BNP
Reform UK
Other (specify)
Undecided
Would not vote
Refused
Your easiest Advent challenge is: spot the difference. Yes, Ipsos relegates Reform and the Greens to the follow-up list. Much of Reform’s support in the non-Ipsos polls seems to depend on its place in the first list. Without that prompt, its support goes elsewhere. If the average of 9 per cent detected by other pollsters represented people who really were keen on Reform, then they might be expected to spot that Reform was missing from Ipsos’s first list, and say “another party”. But most don’t.
We can compare Reform’s fate with that of the Greens, which are in the same polling boat: in YouGov’s first list, but Ipsos’s second. Does relegation also harm them?
The answer is clear: no it doesn’t. Ipsos consistently reports 6-to-7 per cent support for the Greens, the same as YouGov and other companies. It looks as if the Greens have a small but committed band of voters. Seeing that their party is omitted from the first list, they say “another party” and pick Green from the second list. Most Reform “supporters” don’t make it to the second list. They seem less committed.
So, which is right? Is Reform’s true support around 9 per cent, or less than half of that? Having wrestled with the first list/second list issue years ago when Ukip was growing and I was responsible for YouGov’s polls, I sympathise with the dilemma facing today’s pollsters. There is no certain right or wrong ahead of an election. It’s a matter of judgement.
However, recent evidence from actual elections tilts the debate in favour of Ipsos. In this May’s local elections, the Greens gained 241 council seats, Reform just two. In parliamentary byelections in the past two years, Reform’s best result was 5.4 per cent in Tamworth. The Greens won almost twice that in Somerton and Frome: 10.2 per cent.
We must, of course, be wary of converting local and byelection results into polling percentages and election outcomes. They are not like-with-like events. However, here is one straight comparison that can be made: recent byelections with those in 2013 and 2014, the same point in the 2010-15 Parliament. Leave aside the two Conservative MPs who switched to UKIP, resigned in 2014 to force byelections and held their seats under their new colours. In all of the other five byelections, Ukip came second, with 25 per cent support on average.
Reform’s average in the past two years has been just 3 per cent. Byelections are perfect opportunities for discontented Tories to let off steam. They did this by backing Ukip in large numbers a decade ago. Reform’s target voters—grumpy Tories who are pro-Brexit and anti-immigration—might have been expected to flock to the party in the current parliament. The results show that they have stayed at home or switched to Labour or the Lib Dems. Few have voted Reform.
Much could change between now and the next general election. Nigel Farage could return from the Australian jungle refreshed and keen to join the electoral fray. Reform might persuade prominent Conservatives to switch parties. Then there is the uncertain impact of celebrities: Joan Collins attracted much publicity when she backed Ukip in the 2004 European Elections.
It is possible, then, that Reform will surge as polling day approaches. However, there is no clear sign of it yet. For the moment, we should disregard excitable headlines, Tice’s boasts and incontinent Conservatives who try to persuade us otherwise.
