As a senior civil servant and then cabinet secretary I observed at first hand two transitions of power within the same party: when John Major took over from Margaret Thatcher and when Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair.
Each was different but there were common themes. Neither transition, though, took place against today’s uniquely challenging backdrop of high inflation, a predicted recession and a war in Ukraine. So what advice would I give Liz Truss, the winning candidate to be Britain’s next prime minister? The first pressing issue is to unify the parliamentary party following the stark divisions of the campaign. This is a massive challenge as neither candidate came near to having the support of over half of their MPs.
The first step would be to pick a Cabinet with the most able people in each job, not one rewarding political loyalty. The problems the new prime minister faces are manifest and she will be judged on how she delivers for voters—not her political allies. The second is to act swiftly to heal whatever problems led to the downfall of her predecessor. For comparison, Major moved quickly to abolish the poll tax and created the council tax.
The new prime minister will need to repair the damage to trust in politicians highlighted by the Ipsos Mori poll showing politicians and ministers near the very bottom of the rankings. Words alone will not suffice: nearly every new PM has said on the steps of Downing St as they arrive that they will rebuild this trust. Practical action is needed, like appointing an independent figure with the power to instigate investigations, and Truss could look at other recommendations of the Committee on Standards in Public Life.
The new PM would also be well advised to restore relations with the civil service, because they are the vehicle by which much policy is delivered. Officials will want to deliver for the new PM but expect to be treated with respect. A wise prime minister would demand an end to attacks on the civil service. This doesn’t mean abandoning reform, quite the opposite. There is a need to solve capability gaps in the service, there are problems of attracting talent when real pay levels are falling, and there is scope to analyse ways of cutting the total wage bill. Truss’s earlier proposal around regional pay—with some ludicrously overoptimistic costings—was quickly abandoned, but it will have made public servants nervous about the quality of advice she has been getting.
There have been suggestions that the new PM might be tempted to think about reorganising Whitehall departments. My strong advice would be to avoid so-called machinery of government changes until you have had time to assess what works and what doesn’t. This will ensure that all departments get on with delivering their priorities: during periods of crisis don’t rearrange the deckchairs.
The most immediate challenge facing the prime minister is the cost-of-living crisis. There is an ongoing debate about what to do in the short term. Over the course of the campaign each candidate spelled out their intentions, which, to put it politely, evolved. The delay in responding has been difficult and frustrating but I believe the resulting package will be better, as we have all realised the enormity of the problems faced by many people and businesses. I’m sure the Treasury will have prepared detailed analyses of various options and the PM would be well advised to consider them carefully.
It is crucial to consider the longer-term implications of any short-term policies. It is really hard to reverse any giveaways: loss aversion is a very strong force. Energy prices are likely to remain high for a long time. To build our energy resilience we need to expand clean sources like wind, solar and nuclear. And we need to reverse the dramatic decline in insulation projects delivered through government schemes.
The sooner you start this the better. The ultimate goal remains domestic delivery of clean energy cheaper than that derived from fossil fuels. This could be a main plank of the new prime minister’s vision for a successful post-Brexit nation. The cabinet secretary will have asked the outgoing PM for permission to engage with both candidates to discuss their policy priorities and, nearer the handover date, to make them aware of the challenges a PM faces on day one, week one and over the longer term. Since Truss has been a senior member of cabinet she starts with an understanding of the issues, but would still be well advised to consider carefully all options put to her by the Treasury before deciding on a course of action.
These challenges are pretty daunting at the best of times. And with the war in Ukraine and the cost-of-living crisis at home, these are far from the best of times. I pray, for the good of the whole country, that we get the strong political leadership and strong partnership with the civil service we need to solve these problems.
