What don’t we want? Independence

The consequences for Wales will probably be the last thing on Scottish voters’ minds when they cast their ballot for or against independence in 2014. Nevertheless there are huge implications for the rest of the UK flowing from any Yes vote north of the border. It would halve the size of Britain’s Celtic fringe from 10m to 5m people. Consider the political implications for the right-left balance in “Rump-UK.” What about the ability of Wales and Northern Ireland to get their voices heard within that Rump country—would it be sustainable?

The November release of the Scottish National Party’s White Paper, in which it presented its case for independence, generated a great ballyhoo. In comparison, little attention was paid to another announcement made a week earlier. Its subject was the devolution of tax and borrowing powers to Wales.

The British and Welsh governments revealed the decision jointly, to show that full independence is not necessary in order to win more devolved powers. All that is needed is for governments to negotiate.

The muted response was down to confusion. The Welsh Assembly had asked to be given the power to set borrowing levels, landfill tax, stamp duty and business rates. However, the right to vary income tax by up to 10p in the pound is being imposed by the UK government on a somewhat reluctant Welsh government. The latter is quietly pleased that full income tax powers can’t be handed over without a referendum.

If that referendum were ever to take place it would be the fourth on devolution in Wales. The reason for the Welsh government’s reluctance to take on the power to vary income tax is that it would lock in place the current mechanism by which Wales is funded. Present arrangements underfund Wales by £300m a year. Correct the underfunding, says the Welsh First Minister Carwyn Jones and we’ll go for the income tax referendum.

But no one will contemplate a major reform of the Barnett Formula, which determines the level of funding to Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland. No income tax referendum without reform of the Barnett Formula for Wales. No reform to the Barnett Formula until after the Scottish referendum.

Scotland has just over five million people, Wales just over three million and Northern Ireland 1.8m. England has an overwhelming 53.5m out of the UK’s 64m population—more than 83 per cent of the total. Were Scots to vote to secede, England would finish up with 53.5m out of 59m, around 92 per cent of the total. How would the Celts make their voices heard under those conditions? The problem would be worse for Wales than for Northern Ireland. Thirty years of the Troubles, followed by the euphoria over the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, combined with American interest in the province have guaranteed that Northern Ireland will never get ignored. There are no such guarantees for Wales.

That is why I see the Scottish independence referendum as having more parallels with Quebec than appears at first sight. Geographically there is little parallel. Had Quebec seceded in 1995, as it nearly did, it would have cut Canada in two. The Atlantic provinces would have been cut off from Ontario and the Prairie provinces. Scottish independence does not carry a comparable threat.

If Scotland votes Yes, then Wales and Northern Ireland would become the equivalent of the Atlantic provinces of Canada. There was a unity rally in the Place du Canada in Montreal three days before the vote on secession. The crowd of about 100,000, mostly from outside Quebec, couldn’t vote but went there to beg the Québécois not to cut eastern Canada off from the west.

Nobody is suggesting a mass rally of Welsh men and women in Princes Street just before Scotland’s independence vote. In the unlikely event that such a gathering were organised, it would probably have the reverse effect of that intended. We do though, need to percolate that Welsh plea into the minds of the Scottish electorate; a plea that says “if you leave the UK, Wales becomes the tail which can never ever wag the English dog!”

We do have a real constitutional interest in the Scottish referendum vote. All the issues I have listed show that we might not have a sustainable position in the Rump-UK.

In one of my many conversations with Alex Salmond about the position of the Celtic countries within the UK, I once upset him mightily by referring to the UK as comprising an “Elephant and Three Fleas.” He accused me of a form of Celtic self-loathing. I told him that you had to “clock” the enormous disparity between England and the rest.

And I thought then, as I still think, that we fleas ought to stick together.