Tripoli captured?

It is not over yet, but it is pretty close. As of this morning, gunfire is still being heard around Tripoli. International journalists stuck in the Rixos Hotel tell us Gaddafi loyalists continue to hold their neighbourhood. But it seems 80 per cent of the city is in rebel hands. By tonight, they may well have all of it. The Bab al Azizia, Gaddafi’s central Tripoli fortress is surrounded by rebels. The capture of Tripoli was faster and easier than any one imagined.

What a difference a day makes. Yesterday morning, the rebels were stuck in Zawiyah, 30 miles from the capital. Few expected they would be entering Tripoli by nightfall. What happened? Examining tweets from the front line, it seems the key was the devastating Nato bombing of the Khamis Brigade barracks on the coastal road between Zawiyah and the capital.

Well-paid, well-armed and brutal, the Khamis Brigade, commanded by one of Muammar Gaddafi’s sons, was the elite of the government forces. Back in March, it was this group that recaptured Zawiyah from the rebels. Yesterday, they remained the strongest force between the rebel front line and the capital.

Faced with withering gunfire from the Khamis Brigade, the rebels retreated and Nato stepped in. The bombing was relentless and devastating. A regime like Gaddafi’s is ultimately sustained by fear. If soldiers, no matter what their personal sympathies, think security forces will kill them if they abandon their posts, they will stand and fight. But at some point yesterday, the men of the Khamis Brigade decided they feared Nato airpower more than they feared Gaddafi. So they ran, tearing off their uniforms so they could blend in with the civilian population. The road to Tripoli was clear and the rebels just marched right down it.

Journalists, like generals, are conscious of the lessons of the last war. Many here are frightened of a repeat of the Iraq disaster, of anarchy and tribal warfare. I am a tad more optimistic. Libya, like Iraq, is rich with oil. Unlike Iraq, it has a tiny population. With so much oil wealth, there is a real possibility that it could be divided fairly. On this glorious day in Libyan history, let us let them enjoy their victory.