Scottish Labour's vote against Trident won't worry the SNP

Assessed purely in tactical terms, the recent Scottish Labour Party conference in Perth was a triumph.

A series of policy announcements—including the mitigation (in full) of planned cuts to tax credits—clearly positioned the party to the left of the governing Scottish National Party (SNP.)

For years Nationalists have attacked Labour from the left, depicting it as a pale imitation of the Conservative Party, “Red Tories." But with Jeremy Corbyn now UK leader and a tax-and-spend platform in the run up to next May’s Holyrood elections, that caricature will be much harder to maintain.

Sunday’s highly anticipated vote on Trident was also part of this repositioning. Although the UK’s independent nuclear deterrent isn’t a very salient issue with the average voter, the SNP have succeeded in making it a leitmotif of Scottish politics, its opposition wielded as proof that it’s more left-wing than Labour.

By voting to oppose renewal by 70-30, Scottish Labour was not only demonstrating its “autonomy” from Labour HQ in London but seeking to lance a difficult political boil, although the operation was only partly successful. While Scottish party leader Kezia Dugdale encouraged the conference debate, she remains in favour of replacing Trident, while in the rest of the UK it’s the other way round: Corbyn is anti and his party pro.

Earlier today the Shadow Defence Secretary, Maria Eagle, told BBC Radio 4’s World at One: “This does not change UK Labour party policy. Defence is not a devolved matter so Labour party policy on this must be set at a national level.”

Thus the SNP will argue—with good reason—that Labour is deeply divided on a big, important issue, allowing it to maintain ownership of the nuclear issue. Indeed this is likely to be the Nationalist response in general, a seamless transition from arguing that Labour isn’t left enough to pointing out that it isn’t strong or unified enough to stand any chance of winning an election in Scotland or at Westminster.

And there’s the rub. Assessed in electoral terms, more than six months out from the Scottish Parliament elections it looks unlikely Scottish Labour’s repositioning will make much difference. The SNP is so confident of its hegemony that it hasn’t even bothered responding in any detail to the weekend’s events, while a recent poll suggests Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader and First Minister, is Scotland’s most popular and respected figure.

Scottish Labour strategists, however, are working on the assumption that as polling day looms the terms of debate will shift in their favour. Not only will there be increasing scrutiny of the SNP’s record in government—recent reports have been critical of its handling of health and education—but Ms Sturgeon will have to explain (unless she adopts Labour’s policy) why she won’t mitigate the UK Government’s tax credit cuts using new powers over tax and welfare.

Key from Labour’s point of view will be unity and credibility. Already there are tensions among trade unionists over the Trident decision. Scottish Conservatives, meanwhile, are increasingly confident they can woo moderate Labour voters unhappy with their party’s leftward tilt under “Jez and Kez” (as a badge on sale at Perth described the UK and Scottish leadership.)

An additional challenge for Scottish Labour is simply regaining a voice in the debate. On the BBC’s Question Time last Thursday Ms Dugdale made a competent pitch for voters to take a “fresh look” at her party but, as presenter David Dimbleby helpfully pointed out, it was greeted with palpable silence from the studio audience in Edinburgh.

She got a much warmer reception following her well-argued speech at the Perth Concert Hall, but the Scottish electorate and Scottish Labour Party are no longer as closely aligned as they once were. The SNP still controls the narrative north of the border, although after last weekend its main opponents at least stand a chance of regaining the initiative.