This week has been traumatic for Labour. On Monday, the party saw one of its biggest rebellions in the past decade as 48 of its 232 MPs voted against a government welfare bill on which they were supposed to abstain. This was bad enough, but it was nothing compared to the furore which accompanied the release of a YouGov poll on Wednesday, showing Jeremy Corbyn, the hard left candidate, ahead in the race for the leadership.
New supporters and sections of the "selectorate" too young to remember Labour's wilderness years in opposition, or even much of its time in power, disproportionately back the veteran socialist. So-called "Blairites" and other stalwarts on the right of the party publicly despair over what they see as a journey toward electoral oblivion. Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Shadow Care Minister Liz Kendall, both rivals for the top job, have said they would not serve in Corbyn's shadow cabinet if he won. Former Labour leader Tony Blair told those whose "heart" was with Corbyn to "get a transplant" in a speech on Wednesday.
Does the infighting mark the end of the road for an exhausted and embattled Labour party, or is this just a moment of summer madness? We asked our panel to give their view...
It seems that the Labour Party, in some respects, is heading back in the direction of the 1980s, but this does not have to be as far back as the point at which the SDP broke away. The task is not to turn back but instead look forward to the creation of Next Labour.
This will not be easy given that Labour lost a lot of its more centrist members during the Miliband years. These people hailed from our three previous election victories, they were people who celebrated Labour's success and liked what we did in government. Not surprisingly they got the message that they were less welcome in the Miliband phase of Labour's journey. Put this loss together with the influx of mainly young new members who liked the Miliband message (and in many cases barely remember Labour winning an election) and you can understand why such a churn has taken place in the party. Our job now is to re-kindle a thirst for winning. To bring progressive left values and policies into government you need a modern mindset and electoral credibility.
There’s not going to be a split—not least because since Jeremy Corbyn would so obviously send Labour into electoral oblivion. He will not win. But the view has taken hold in some quarters that seeking economic trust from voters equates either to accepting ideological defeat or even to mimicking the Tories in a way that makes winning pointless. This comes with an assumption that ordinary people are stupid dupes—which is a bit insulting.
If that view becomes widely entrenched then we risk a long term problem because any leader that seeks to change the country for the better is going to have to live in the real world—politically and economically. Our new leader needs the strength to ensure that the Party can win elections in order to change the country—inherent in Labour’s values is the belief that we are credible and can speak to the whole country.
In his engaging memoir Who Goes Home? Roy Hattersley says that he would rather have capsized aboard the Labour party than abandoned ship for the Social Democratic Party (SDP). His loyalty, when tested, reposed in the institution rather than in the creed. So, even if the Labour party were to split the future lies with those who stay rather than those who depart.
In fact, a split is unlikely. It is, in the first place, not likely that Jeremy Corbyn will win the leadership and even if he does win, he is not likely to last long as leader. He barely wants the job and, unlike in the 1980s, there are no formidable characters on the left of Labour. That is a significant incentive for the mainstream Labour figures to sit tight. In 1981 it felt like a long way back for the centrist people in the party. Now it doesn’t seem so far.
Nobody in New Labour is a Conservative. The Liberal Democrats have collapsed. There is nowhere attractive for anyone to go and the salutary example of the failure of the SDP. The Labour party is affected by a strange virus at the moment but it won’t die and it won’t split into two either.
I don’t think Labour’s heading for a split. I think we’re having a healthy debate, which we’ve missed out on in the last couple of years, when there’s been a huge push for party unity at the cost of a proper discussion. Sometimes it’s easy for Labour MPs to forget how big a movement we’re part of—Labour party members, affiliated and registered supporters, the trade union movement, the co-operative party… it’s actually very broad.
If some of my Labour colleagues want to make these statements about how they wouldn’t serve in a Jeremy Corbyn cabinet they need to look at the polls, and ask why their own candidate isn’t connecting in the same way. I wouldn’t say that Jeremy is particularly radical. I would say in some ways he’s more mainstream than the other three in terms of connecting with real people.
New supporters and sections of the "selectorate" too young to remember Labour's wilderness years in opposition, or even much of its time in power, disproportionately back the veteran socialist. So-called "Blairites" and other stalwarts on the right of the party publicly despair over what they see as a journey toward electoral oblivion. Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Shadow Care Minister Liz Kendall, both rivals for the top job, have said they would not serve in Corbyn's shadow cabinet if he won. Former Labour leader Tony Blair told those whose "heart" was with Corbyn to "get a transplant" in a speech on Wednesday.
Does the infighting mark the end of the road for an exhausted and embattled Labour party, or is this just a moment of summer madness? We asked our panel to give their view...
Not New Labour but Next Labour
Peter Mandelson, former Labour Cabinet ministerIt seems that the Labour Party, in some respects, is heading back in the direction of the 1980s, but this does not have to be as far back as the point at which the SDP broke away. The task is not to turn back but instead look forward to the creation of Next Labour.
This will not be easy given that Labour lost a lot of its more centrist members during the Miliband years. These people hailed from our three previous election victories, they were people who celebrated Labour's success and liked what we did in government. Not surprisingly they got the message that they were less welcome in the Miliband phase of Labour's journey. Put this loss together with the influx of mainly young new members who liked the Miliband message (and in many cases barely remember Labour winning an election) and you can understand why such a churn has taken place in the party. Our job now is to re-kindle a thirst for winning. To bring progressive left values and policies into government you need a modern mindset and electoral credibility.
Join the real world
Karim Palant, former head of policy for Ed BallsThere’s not going to be a split—not least because since Jeremy Corbyn would so obviously send Labour into electoral oblivion. He will not win. But the view has taken hold in some quarters that seeking economic trust from voters equates either to accepting ideological defeat or even to mimicking the Tories in a way that makes winning pointless. This comes with an assumption that ordinary people are stupid dupes—which is a bit insulting.
If that view becomes widely entrenched then we risk a long term problem because any leader that seeks to change the country for the better is going to have to live in the real world—politically and economically. Our new leader needs the strength to ensure that the Party can win elections in order to change the country—inherent in Labour’s values is the belief that we are credible and can speak to the whole country.
This virus can be cured
Philip Collins, Prospect's Associate Editor and former speechwriter for Tony BlairIn his engaging memoir Who Goes Home? Roy Hattersley says that he would rather have capsized aboard the Labour party than abandoned ship for the Social Democratic Party (SDP). His loyalty, when tested, reposed in the institution rather than in the creed. So, even if the Labour party were to split the future lies with those who stay rather than those who depart.
In fact, a split is unlikely. It is, in the first place, not likely that Jeremy Corbyn will win the leadership and even if he does win, he is not likely to last long as leader. He barely wants the job and, unlike in the 1980s, there are no formidable characters on the left of Labour. That is a significant incentive for the mainstream Labour figures to sit tight. In 1981 it felt like a long way back for the centrist people in the party. Now it doesn’t seem so far.
Nobody in New Labour is a Conservative. The Liberal Democrats have collapsed. There is nowhere attractive for anyone to go and the salutary example of the failure of the SDP. The Labour party is affected by a strange virus at the moment but it won’t die and it won’t split into two either.
Connect with real people
Cat Smith, MP for Lancaster and Fleetwood and Corbyn supporterI don’t think Labour’s heading for a split. I think we’re having a healthy debate, which we’ve missed out on in the last couple of years, when there’s been a huge push for party unity at the cost of a proper discussion. Sometimes it’s easy for Labour MPs to forget how big a movement we’re part of—Labour party members, affiliated and registered supporters, the trade union movement, the co-operative party… it’s actually very broad.
If some of my Labour colleagues want to make these statements about how they wouldn’t serve in a Jeremy Corbyn cabinet they need to look at the polls, and ask why their own candidate isn’t connecting in the same way. I wouldn’t say that Jeremy is particularly radical. I would say in some ways he’s more mainstream than the other three in terms of connecting with real people.
Corbynism is a passing fad
Alex Massie, freelance journalist and Scotland Editor of The Spectator
Is Labour going to split? No, little ones, it is not. There are many reasons why this is the case but the simplest is that Jeremy Corbyn is not going to be the next leader of the Labour party. That removes the notional catalyst for any hypothetical split and renders the question null and void. It is true, I suppose, that once Jezzah is defeated some of Corbyn's far-left supporters might not renew their £3 membership of the party but they have nowhere useful or realistic to go. Even in the improbable event that Corbyn *does* become leader there is nowhere useful for his opponents to go either. The costs of setting up and establishing a new party are vastly greater than the costs of waiting a couple of years until such time as Corbyn's leadership collapses and moderate, sane, Labour can reclaim their party.
Nor does joining the Liberal Democrats in some kind of refreshed Alliance pact seem altogether attractive these days. Corbynism is a passing fad, proof that the political silly season arrived early this year. It will not, cannot, last beyond August. In this respect, Corbyn is the Donald Trump of Labour politics right now. The party membership, like the Republicans over the water, is happy to flirt with and even date lunacy but it will not, surely, marry madness. Everyone should just calm down.
