Today’s election will be the most polled in British history and it must also be one of the most confusing in living memory.
The latest polls are showing that Labour and the Conservatives are still neck and neck but those looking to predict the results should delve into the betting markets for more insight.
The bookmakers are preparing for a staggering £100m to be wagered across the markets and they believe it will be the biggest betting election of all time. The fact it has captured the public’s imagination is undeniable—it has made the £1m gambled on the royal baby market look like small change.
The power of these political markets continues to increase and they have long been more than a financial exercise. Comparing the odds on offer gives us a clear indication of how the vote is going and the collective wisdom of those using them is giving us clear signals regarding the result.
The vast sums of money that have arrived for the Conservatives to win most seats in recent days has driven their price down to 1/5 and bets continue to pile on for the Tories at cramped odds.
For those who are relying on the polls for guidance this might not make too much sense but skilled betters will be taking much more than polling into account. They will also be using their experience on how good the different pollsters are and will be making calculated decisions on what will happen to those who remain undecided.
With that in mind, it appears that many are banking on a late swing to the Tories and they’re willing to take short odds on the outcome.
So the Conservatives are fancied to win most seats, but who will be next Prime Minister? There is less confidence in that market but the bookmakers slightly favour David Cameron who has attracted a number of sizeable bets overnight. He is currently 10/11 whilst Ed Miliband is 11/10 to land the keys to Number 10.
The final days of the election in pictures:
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The "next government" market is less clear and people are finding it hard to split a Labour minority (2/1) and a Conservative and Lib Dem coalition (5/2). A Conservative majority appears to be unlikely at 11/1 but there have been plenty of bets on a Conservative minority at 6/1 and such a result is as short as 11/4 in places.
It’s not just betting markets that have been popular this week and the uncertainty over this year’s election result has triggered unprecedented interest in political trading. Spread betters are also predicting that the Conservatives will win more seats than Labour, with tens of millions already traded on the market.
If the bookmakers believe that one thing is almost certain it’s that we will have no overall majority and they are as short as 1/20 on there being a hung parliament after the election.
For those who think that the confusion could lead to a second election it’s 11/4 that we have another one in 2015.
Nobody can be sure about the results of this election and the polls remain tight, but the betting markets have spoken and I know who my money will be on.
