General Election 2015: David Cameron's NHS strategy is damaging the Tories

In polls as in politics, it matters how you frame questions. In a special exercise for Prospect, we have tested the way David Cameron is trying to frame the debate about the NHS; and the results are rather surprising; at least, they surprised me.

Poll after poll has shown that Labour is more trusted on the NHS, while the Conservatives are trusted more on the economy. The Prime Minister has been trying to neutralise the issue of health care by linking it to the economy. He says that the only way to afford a decent health service is to have a strong economy; therefore, anyone who thinks the Tories would run the economy better than Labour should trust his party more to run the NHS.

To test this argument, we asked about the NHS in two surveys, just 24 hours apart. In one we asked about the NHS “cold”, and got the standard answer—Labour clearly ahead, but with a lot of don’t knows:

In our other survey we asked the same question, but only after asking two other questions, about the economy, and the link between a health economy and a high-quality NHS. We wanted to see whether, by framing the issue in the way that the Prime Minister wants, he can cut into Labour’s lead.

This is what we found:

As those figures show, “warming up” respondents does make a difference. It reduces the number of don’t knows. The figures for both main parties rise. The striking thing is that Labour’s figure (up five compared with when the question is asked “cold”) rises more than the Tories (up just two). Labour’s lead widens from eight points in the “cold” question to 11 in the “warmed-up” question.

In short, it looks as if Cameron’s policy is doing his party more harm than good. How come?

Let’s go back to the economy figures. The Tories are trusted more than Labour, by 39-20 per cent. But a further 41 per cent don’t take sides, saying “neither” or “don’t know”. Of that 41 per cent, just 1 per cent trusts Cameron and the Tories more on the NHS, while 30 per cent trust Labour and Miliband more. In round numbers, five million voters who don’t take sides on the economy trust Labour on the NHS; very few trust the Tories.

Not surprisingly, most voters who plump for one of the two main parties plumps for the same party on the NHS. But here, too, there are problems for Cameron. While fully 94 per cent of those who back Labour on the economy also back it on the NHS, while just 60 per cent of those who say the Tories are best on the economy also back them on the NHS.

Conclusion: persuading two in five voters that you have the right economic strategy is not enough. If Cameron is to pursue his strong economy/well-funded NHS argument, he needs to reach more of the three in five voters who currently doubt his economic competence—and then show that his plans to fund the NHS flow from the passion of a normal citizen, not simply the spread-sheets of an accountant.