Conservative Party conference: David Cameron's speech didn't go far enough on Europe

As David Cameron took the stage at the Conservative Party conference, he radiated confidence and competence, but not complacency. Taking a sip of water and positioning himself behind a very Prime Ministerial lectern (no memory games for DC), he looked ready for the job in hand. It was a big job. He had to draw together a party divided over Europe, connect with a nation which thinks his party doesn't care about them, defend his record in government and stem the trickle (and it is only a trickle) of ship-jumpers heading off to join pirate king Nigel Farage.

This year, he couldn't just rely on strong diction and a pleasing theme like last year's “land of opportunity for all.” Things had to be different—he had to offer something substantial. The mood at the party conference this week may have been buoyant, but that might have had something to do with the £700 entry fee, which is likely to keep out any disgruntled potential Ukippers. In the eyes of the wider country, the Conservatives have not had a good conference. They began it with a high-profile defection to Ukip—the MP Mark Reckless went to join his colleague Douglas Carswell in the ranks of the people's army—and other, significantly less important defections followed.

While opinion has been divided over a sex scandal which led to the resignation of former Minister for Civil Society Brooks Newmark, his behaviour following a tabloid sting has still given senior figures one more off-message question to field in interviews. The reception for George Osborne's newly announced benefits freeze has been mixed.

Partly fuelled by this atmosphere of mild chaos, speculation has been building throughout the week that something significant was likely to be announced in Cameron's speech. The New Statesman's George Eaton wondered on Tuesday whether we might get an offer on tax. This morning, BBC journalists were reporting that Cameron had promised them a “genuine, big” announcement.

They certainly got it. Cameron clearly recognises that the stark austerity message delivered by George Osborne in his conference speech on Monday won't convince voters that a reduction in the defecit means much for them. In his speech today, he sought to address this. Using the £25bn in spending cuts promised by Osborne, he said, the conservatives would deliver two tax cuts over the course of the next parliament: raising the threshold at which people start paying the 40p top rate of income tax from about £42,000 to £50,000, and raising the “personal allowance”—the amount below which you don't pay any income tax—from £10,500 to £12,500. That means if you work 30 hours a week on minimum wage, you won't pay any income tax. As Cameron put it: “zero, zilch.” The Lib Dems, it should be noted, are angry, with Liberal Democrat Treasury Secretary Danny Alexander slamming Cameron's "shameless attempt to copy Liberal Democrat tax policy."

To anyone who was at the Ukip conference last week, this “top and bottom” strategy will sound familiar. Farage's party last week offered voters a 35p top income tax rate starting at £55,000, and a personal allowance of £13,500. Cameron has not gone as far, but Ukip's proposals rely in part on the £10bn a year they say the country will save from leaving the EU. Cameron has done about as much as he can while still seeming like the responsible steward of the economy the public think he is. Expert reaction is sceptical: Andrew Haldenby from the Think Tank Reform told Prospect that raising the income tax threshold alone would cost the UK £10bn a year—he isn't sure it squares with the overall savings plan. Jonathan Portes from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research goes further, saying that these tax cuts will leave a “black hole” in the UK's finances. One might also point out that handing a tax cut to people earning £40,000 is a cut for the highest-earning 25 per cent, not for the “squeezed middle.” Still, the offer is likely to play well in headlines and does go some way to address the charge that the Tories don't think about spreading savings around.

If elections were won on the delivery of speeches alone, Cameron would be settling back into Downing street for another five years already. Where Ed Miliband quoted vague and even comical encounters with multiple real people, Cameron stuck to his 91-year-old constituent and veteran Patrick Churchill. Not only was the stalwart old chap the ideal Tory mascot, but he was actually in the hall. Where Miliband's jokes fell flat, Cameron's were in some cases not eye-gougingly appalling, in particular when he affectionately joshed his team. His line about William Hague having been “just a regular happy boy” despite his record collection as a teenager consisting largely of Churchill speeches went down well, and formed part of a gracious send-off for a much-loved parliamentarian. Perhaps most importantly, Cameron looked like an actual human for much of the speech. There were echoes of his 2009 conference address when he discussed his experience of the NHS during the illness and subsequent death of his son Ivan. His eyes filled with fury when he attacked Labour for “frighten[ing] those who rely on the National Health Service.”

But on Europe, he might not have gone as far as he needed to. Bill Cash, the Eurosceptic MP and Chair of the European Scrutiny Committee, tells me that Cameron should have done more to explain in simple terms why voting Ukip won't deliver change in Europe. Cameron should have made it crystal clear, he says, that a government needs a majority to deliver a referendum. He also should have made clear that renegotiating our relationship with Europe requires changing the “granite rock” of EU treaties, something which he says Ukip haven't set out a plan to achieve. He isn't convinced the speech will win back those who have defected to Ukip over Europe, or fully please the 100 or so MPs that supported his committee's report last December, which recommended reinstating the British veto over European laws.

In this speech, David Cameron has set out an unashamedly patriotic, deeply conservative vision for a “Britain we can be proud to call home,” emphasising reward for hard work, aspiration and shared values. His delivery was flawless, his audience enraptured. But we'll have to wait and see if he has done enough to appease the big Belgian elephant in the room.

 Watch Cassette Boy's excellent mix of the speech here