I like to offer value for money; so here is not one prediction but two, for the news next Friday. All you have to do is choose which is more likely. After being surprised by the twists and turns of the past few weeks, I am no longer sure what will happen.
In the final week, women voters, who had been fearful of change, decided that the status quo was not so attractive after all. The gender gap narrowed. Although most men voted Yes and most women No, the verdict of Scotland’s men was more clear-cut, so that the overall verdict favoured independence.
Although the Yes bandwagon appeared to stall a week from polling day, its underlying momentum was enough to overcome a tricky few days. By polling day, the remaining undecided voters found themselves swept along by the optimism and enthusiasm of the Yes campaign, and voted for separation.
Looking back, Alex Salmond could compare himself with General Montgomery in 1942. The August surge in Yes support was like Monty’s victory at El Alamein: the moment when the tide turned and eventual victory became certain.
In the final week, women voters, who had started to lose their fear of change, decided that the status quo was safer after all. The gender gap, which had narrowed, widened again. Although most men voted Yes and most women No, the verdict of Scotland’s women was more clear-cut, so that the overall verdict favoured Scotland remaining in the UK.
When the Yes bandwagon appeared to stall a week from polling day, Salmond’s hopes that it would be short-lived were soon dashed. By polling day, the remaining undecided voters found themselves consumed by doubts about the wisdom of separation and decided not to take the risk.
Looking back, Alex Salmond could compare himself with Bonnie Prince Charlie in 1745. The August surge in Yes support was like the sweep south from Scotland as far as Derby. But he got no further and soon had to retreat. That was the moment when the tide turned and eventual defeat became certain.
Prediction 1
Good morning. Scotland has voted Yes to independence. Alistair Darling conceded defeat at 4pm when it became clear that Glasgow’s Labour voters had embraced the hope of a more prosperous Scotland, freed from the fear of cuts to the NHS required by austerity policies decided in London.In the final week, women voters, who had been fearful of change, decided that the status quo was not so attractive after all. The gender gap narrowed. Although most men voted Yes and most women No, the verdict of Scotland’s men was more clear-cut, so that the overall verdict favoured independence.
Although the Yes bandwagon appeared to stall a week from polling day, its underlying momentum was enough to overcome a tricky few days. By polling day, the remaining undecided voters found themselves swept along by the optimism and enthusiasm of the Yes campaign, and voted for separation.
Looking back, Alex Salmond could compare himself with General Montgomery in 1942. The August surge in Yes support was like Monty’s victory at El Alamein: the moment when the tide turned and eventual victory became certain.
Prediction 2
Good morning. Scotland has voted No to independence. Alex Salmond conceded defeat at 4pm when it became clear that Glasgow’s Labour voters had not been convinced by his promise of a more prosperous Scotland. They feared cuts to the NHS if Scotland faced hard times without the strength of the UK to help it out.In the final week, women voters, who had started to lose their fear of change, decided that the status quo was safer after all. The gender gap, which had narrowed, widened again. Although most men voted Yes and most women No, the verdict of Scotland’s women was more clear-cut, so that the overall verdict favoured Scotland remaining in the UK.
When the Yes bandwagon appeared to stall a week from polling day, Salmond’s hopes that it would be short-lived were soon dashed. By polling day, the remaining undecided voters found themselves consumed by doubts about the wisdom of separation and decided not to take the risk.
Looking back, Alex Salmond could compare himself with Bonnie Prince Charlie in 1745. The August surge in Yes support was like the sweep south from Scotland as far as Derby. But he got no further and soon had to retreat. That was the moment when the tide turned and eventual defeat became certain.
