With less than six weeks to go until Scotland’s referendum, Alex Salmond’s chances of securing independence for Scotland are rapidly fading. For most of this year, YouGov polls have reported a steady 60-40 per cent lead for the No campaign. As I write this blog, a new YouGov poll is in the field; but polling evidence from the past few days is that the Yes campaign has gained no perceptible benefit from two factors that they must have hoped would help them.
The Commonwealth Games in Glasgow were plainly a great success. But there is no sign that they have unleashed a new wave of enthusiasm for Scotland seceding from the United Kingdom. More seriously, an ICM/Guardian poll awarded victory to Alistair Darling among those who watched this week’s television debate between the former Chancellor and the First Minister. Salmond needed a clear victory to have any chance of eroding the No lead. A draw would not be enough. In the event he didn’t even achieve a draw.
His larger problem is that the great majority of Scots have made up their mind how they will vote on 18th September. YouGov polls this year have shown a consistent pattern, with highly polarised opinions. For example, Yes voters think the London parties are bluffing when they say that it might be difficult to agree terms on which Scotland could keep the pound; No voters are sure that London means it. Likewise, Yes voters are certain that Scottish independence would be good for prosperity north of the border, No voters fear economic troubles.
This may seem unsurprising: aren’t Labour and Conservative voters south of the border equally divided in their attitudes? Actually, they are not. On most issues, there are big overlaps in attitudes between supporters of the two parties. Scottish divisions over independence look more like those in the United States, where Republic and Democratic voters really do seem to inhabit different worlds in their values and outlook.
This is bad news for Salmond, for the 60 per cent majority looks deep as well as broad. There seem to be few “shallow” opponents of independence who might be won over by effective last-minute campaigning.
But this could be bad news for all of us, for the minority who plan to vote Yes are equally passionate. When the votes have been counted, the wounds from the referendum campaign will need to heal. Don’t expect this process to be quick or easy. The First Minister may find that his greatest challenges will start, rather than end, on 19th September.
