As the lexicon of “strong and stable” is retired due to overuse and undermining U-turns, Theresa May has sought to shift the debate back onto Brexit. The new headline is that only she has a plan for Brexit and the ability to deliver, with the negotiations set to start a mere ten days after the general election. But the headline is entirely without substance and May and her team know this, which is why the public is being treated to yet more platitudes and mechanical sound bites. If there is a plan on the most defining issue in decades, we are yet to see it.
Brexit Secretary David Davis went on the airwaves this week to pronounce that the government has “over 100 pages of detail” on the Brexit plan. As if parody, it then became clear that those meagre 100 pages consist of not much more than the two White Papers we have already seen, “over 6000” words of the prime minister’s Lancaster House speech and a “five page plus letter to the European Union.”
None of those documents, already inadequate, begin to prepare us for the Herculean task that lies ahead. The first White Paper was no more than a set of aspirations. Take its timid assertion on the Irish border for starters; we all hope for the best, but it’s the government’s job to prepare for the worst outcome. The second White Paper was little more than a starting point for discussions and in effect, acknowledged that. We now have less than two years to get this right and that time has been cut into by the prime minister’s own decision to call an election, plunging the civil service into purdah.
"For all May’s talk of strength and clarity, her words and actions have revealed neither"Lawyers have been warning since before the referendum of the unprecedented legal, constitutional and regulatory complexities that lie ahead. There is no sight of the government’s preparation for any of that. Unpicking 40-plus years of frameworks, even if possible, requires a level of skill and resource that simply hasn’t been made available to the civil service. This week, the Financial Times splashed on the 759 treaties that Britain will need to renegotiate after Brexit “just to stand still,” spanning 168 non-EU countries and covering almost every aspect of a modern economy including customs, trade, fisheries, transport and financial services.
Almost one year after the referendum, there is literally nothing to show in terms of preparations except for a unilateral decision by the PM to pull us out of the single market and customs union. The government refuses to produce a costing or analysis for this. Similarly, it refuses to set out, or even engage with, the disastrous impact of what leaving without a deal will mean. For all May’s talk of strength and clarity, her words and actions have revealed neither. Fighting rhetoric might win votes, but it is damaging and useless in real terms; when the horseplay is over, Britain deserves to know its politicians considered all the possible positions and adopted the most sage.
This isn’t about asking the government to reveal its detailed hand; this is about knowing the parameters it will set.There is no magic pen that can conjure up the level of detail that is required just to reach the starting line in those ten days between the election result and the start of negotiations on 19th June. May called this election allegedly to strengthen her hand in the negotiations, yet she refuses resolutely to tell us how she envisions Britain after Brexit. As the EU extols transparency in its painstakingly detailed documents on the negotiations, May demonstrates no grasp of what lies ahead.
"May said this was the most important election of her lifetime, but she has treated it like a game of hide and seek"May’s most recent tactic has been to issue stern warnings that Britain’s economic future may be seriously damaged by a bad Brexit, with obvious implications for our NHS, education, economic security and livelihoods. These are the very concerns about which the Remain camp warned. There wasn’t a word of this in the tub-thumping Lancaster House speech, nor in the two White Papers, but these are the papers upon which Davis relies to show the government can be trusted with its plan for Brexit. Now she has flip-flopped back again to a position which promises prosperity and "enormous" opportunity for Britain, casting about for votes, with no mention of the dire consequences of which she warned two days ago. None of this makes any logical sense. The world at large knows this too, as May’s Britain retreats to an increasingly isolated and isolationist position.
Whoever is in government next faces a challenge that is immense. The paucity of the debate on Brexit which will define Britain for years to come, has been deeply irresponsible, both during the referendum and during this election campaign. Nor has Labour shined as a beacon of clarity, failing to engage in the depth, complexity and detail of the debate. But Labour and the Lib Dems have able politicians in Keir Starmer and Nick Clegg, who do understand thenuance and the technical detail. Neither does either party advocate walking away without a deal. The Lib Dems keep membership of the single market and free movement alive, whereas the Conservatives have dismissed these things out of hand, whilst now, belatedly and illogically, warning of the perils ahead. Negotiations also require team spirit. May has shown herself to be insular, dismissing those whose views challenge her own.
May said this was the most important election of her lifetime, but she has treated it like a game of hide and seek. It’s no good boasting about being a “bloody difficult woman” unless we know what May intends to be bloody difficult about, and why. Most of May’s 12-point Brexit ‘plan’ is best achieved by actually staying in the EU but May, Davis and Johnson back a vision unpopulated by facts or figures—on immigration, fisheries, farming, Europol, the European Medicines Agency, the Irish border. And on and on. The refusal to engage with the detail demeans the voters and spells acute danger for the difficult months and years to come.
Less than three weeks before negotiations begin, there is not a scrap of evidence that May “and her team” understand the complexity that lies ahead.
