Big question: will the Labour Party split?

It is hard to believe that there are still six weeks left of Labour’s leadership contest. It is already two months since MPs’ nominations for Jeremy Corbyn and Owen Smith were published—and more than that since mass defections from Corbyn’s Shadow Cabinet begun.

Last month, Labour’s National Executive Committee ruled that Corbyn will be on the leadership ballot without needing the nominations of Labour MPs. This decision has strengthened his chances: a large majority of Labour MPs voted “no confidence” in Corbyn in June but this ruling enables him to bypass their votes—he now needs only the approval of the membership, thought to be largely on his side.

The NEC had also ruled that the Party’s new members, thought to favour Corbyn even more than the membership in general, would not be able to vote in the election. But this decision was overturned in the high court this week.

All of this means that Corbyn is seen as the firm favourite. But will his MPs put up with a leader they don't like, or is the party set to split down the middle? A panel of contributors share their views.

Too much sentiment

Philip Collins is an Associate Editor of Prospect

Labour is a party in thrall to its own history. It is a sentimental party, fond of its monuments and its mythology and usually the past hangs heavy around its present. The Labour party needs to split. The supporters of Jeremy Corbyn see themselves as the vanguard of a social movement to replace capitalism. The party is, by irreconcilable contrast, a party committed to reform through Parliament. These two parts should not be in the same party; the coalition makes no sense.

Yet the sorry examples of 1931 and 1981 stand in the way. In 1931 Ramsay Macdonald led a minority of his ministers into a National Government dominated by the Tories and established the tenacious Labour myth of betrayal. Fifty years later, the Gang of Four set up the SDP. After initial promise, the SDP failed to break through and it does not take long for Labour MPs to point to it as an example of the insuperable obstacles to creating a new force in British politics.

They will have to get over it and make their own history. It is all very well picking historical examples as a guide to inaction but the upshot of doing nothing is that you fight an election with Jeremy Corbyn as your leader which is a route to oblivion.

It now seems inevitable

Ian Irvine, Associate Editor at Prospect

All major parties are coalitions. Whatever their differences all sides stay together as long as they believe the compromises involved are worth it for the gains that solidarity brings. The Conservative Party in both parliament and the country kept its faith in the value of its shared enterprise and pursuit of power, despite decades-long bloody feuding over Europe.

For Labour however fragmentation now seems inevitable—a young, dynamic and growing membership is in no mood to accommodate the views of their MPs, most of whom they see as "Blairite" apostates from traditional Labour values. For them—and Jeremy Corbyn it seems—building a Labour movement across the country trumps parliamentary success for the foreseeable future. Corbyn’s confirmation as leader next month will mark the end of Labour’s chances of forming a government in the next election and probably the one after. Should Labour MPs attempt to form a new party, a revived SDP, its prospects are unpropitious, but that may be their only hope of saving their seats.

It won't—but it should do 

Timothy Bale, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University London

Inertia and risk-aversion are powerful forces in politics, so I’m not so sure that Labour will split. But I’m rather more inclined to argue that it should do. When Corbyn wins the leadership contest, then, for the 172 MPs who have no confidence in him, especially those who have spoken out against him and/or who are in marginal seats, there seems little point in sticking around waiting either to be de-selected by angry activists or else ejected by voters at a general election.

True, a new party might find it tough-going under first-past-the-post. But that new party would, if 116 Labour MPs jumped ship, immediately become the official opposition. Moreover, the Lib Dems are still struggling, Corbyn and co. have a serious credibility problem, the unions are not the asset they once were, crowdfunding is now a serious possibility, and the government will become unpopular as the economy runs into trouble. Suicide mission? Maybe. But perhaps it’s do or die time.