“Keep motorists happy” is essentially an unwritten rule of Conservative strategy. Since coming to power in 2010, the party has famously declined to end the protracted freeze on fuel duty it issued that year. The mere mention of doing so invariably sparks revolt from its own MPs. In March, 36 backbenchers wrote to Chancellor Rishi Sunak—who had then refused to rule out hiking the levy—to urge him not to “balance environmentalism on the backs of working people."
Though for a moment this spring, it seemed as though the government’s commitment to cars and drivers would come into conflict with its plans for a carbon neutral economy. That is, until Boris Johnson announced a ban on the sales of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030 as part of his ten-point climate plan in November. The PM had already brought the deadline forward from 2040 to 2035 in February.
The UK now has one of the world’s most ambitious targets for the phase-out of oil-powered passenger cars. While some automotive industry groups have expressed doubts about the plan’s logistical viability, it was broadly welcomed by environmental campaigners concerned about the country’s ability to cut carbon emissions. For a party which covets the votes of motorists, its 2030 target also sends a convenient message: greening the economy doesn’t mean abandoning private cars, just the combustion engines that power them. But the data tells a different story.
Research by the consultancy Transport for Quality of Life found that, even with a rapid transition to electric vehicles (EVs), the UK needs to reduce car mileage by at least 20 per cent by 2030 to meet climate targets. However, the necessary level of reduction could be as high as 60 per cent depending on how quickly the country switches to electric vehicles—and how much of the electricity that powers them is renewable. Decarbonising road transport was never going to be as simple as replacing every petrol and diesel car with a battery-powered one.
“About 68 per cent of car journeys are under five miles. These are journeys that could easily be replaced with a bike ride, or public transport,” says Caterina Brandmayr, head of climate policy at the think tank Green Alliance. “Having safe bike lanes and infrastructure for pedestrians to walk around comfortably would allow people to get out of their cars and opt for these alternatives.”
There is admittedly £5bn in funding earmarked for cycling, walking, and buses in the government’s ten-point plan. But this pales in comparison to recent pledges around road building. In March, the Chancellor announced a £27 billion programme that would see 4,000 miles of new roads added to the country's network by 2025. The following month, a campaign group called Transport Action Network mounted a legal challenge in opposition to the plan, claiming it breaches climate and air quality laws.
A report from Transport for Quality of Life, based on data from Highways England, found that 80 per cent of the carbon saved by switching to electric vehicles would be negated by the £27 billion roads programme. It also says that emissions would be generated through the construction of the roads themselves—it takes a great deal of energy to make the necessary quantities of steel, concrete and asphalt. A government spokesperson has, however, disputed the findings.
Scientists and engineers have suspected for decades that adding more lane miles actually increases vehicles miles travelled. This is called the fundamental law of road congestion, or induced traffic. Put simply, new roads create new drivers. And private car ownership can’t keep expanding if we’re to hit our climate targets—even if many cars on the road are EVs. Though the emissions associated with electric cars are small compared to petrol or diesel models, there are still “upstream” emissions from battery manufacturing and electricity generation.
As more renewable energy makes its way into electricity grids, the carbon footprint of EVs will fall. Still, there’s no escaping the fact that driving less is better for the environment. Though convincing Britons to forego familiar—and convenient—car journeys likely won’t be an easy task. According to Green Alliance’s Brandmayr, part of the responsibility lies with planning authorities, who can ensure new communities have ready-made alternatives to vehicle ownership.
“Over the last couple of decades there have been a lot of new housing developments that effectively locked people into car travel because they didn’t have access to public transport,” Brandmayr says. “The government’s new planning system should make it a priority to develop good public transport connections. It should also prioritise brownfield development, where there tend to be more public transport connections already available, as opposed to greenfield development.”
Improved bus services are especially a priority for rural areas, although some relatively populous areas of the country also remain under-served. Earlier this year, an investigation by the BBC found that about 1.3 million people are at least 2 kilometres away from a bus stop with a service that calls four times a day on average. In areas where public transport is already adequate, car users may need a financial incentive to help them onto a bicycle or out on the pavement.
Researchers in North America have found that demand for vehicle miles is “very responsive” to price—meaning that levies such as congestion charges can reduce traffic. Figures from London back this up. In the six months after Mayor Sadiq Khan introduced the ultra-low emissions zone, there were significant falls in air pollution figures and 13,500 fewer polluting cars being driven into the zone daily.
There are expected to be huge economic advantages to shifting the transition to electric vehicles up to 2030. Few people would argue that the switch to clean cars is a bad policy move. Yet, in the interest of meeting its own climate targets, the government may also have to enact policies to discourage vehicle ownership where appropriate, while boosting alternative forms of travel. Of course, no politician could get elected on a platform that proposed a ban on cars. And the Conservatives would be the last to pursue such an agenda (Margaret Thatcher famously cut the ribbon on the final section of the M25). But, at the risk of a party revolt, Boris Johnson may have to tackle the UK’s dependence on private vehicles. It’s not easy being green.
