Who is new Scottish Conservative leader Jackson Carlaw?

The recent appointment of Jackson Carlaw as the new leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party was more of a coronation than a contest. Carlaw has been the interim leader of the party since Ruth Davidson went on maternity leave and continued in the role after her resignation in August, having previously served as her deputy since 2011. If the appointment was predictable, the surprise is rather how little Carlaw seems to be known compared to his highly familiar predecessor. Who is he and can he live up to Davidson’s record?

Carlaw was raised in Newton Mearns and educated nearby at the independent Glasgow Academy. Before heading into politics, he had a long career as a car salesman at Wylies Automotive Services and its successor FirstFord, the failures of which have seen him face criticism. Always political, unwaveringly Conservative, and dedicated to his home corner of Scotland, Carlaw joined the East Renfrewshire Conservatives in 1978 as a teenager. After a couple of failed attempts to enter the Scottish Parliament, Carlaw chaired the Scottish Young Conservatives and the Eastwood Conservatives, before moving on to become deputy chairman of the Scottish Conservatives. He was finally elected under Scotland’s additional member system in 2007 and again in 2011, to represent the West of Scotland region. He became the MSP for Eastwood in 2016.

Unfortunately, Carlaw’s bumpy electoral record followed him in his first bid to become party leader in 2011, finishing third behind Davidson and Murdo Fraser. Davidson appointed him deputy, a position he held until 2019. As interim leader, Carlaw led the party in the December election where, despite Conservative victory across the wider UK, it lost seven of the 13 seats gained under Davidson.

Sceptics now wonder whether he is up to the job. Davidson was praised as de-toxifying the Tory brand north of the border and restoring its fortunes. For Malcolm Rifkind, secretary of state for Scotland in the Thatcher administration and former long-serving MP for Edinburgh Pentlands, Carlaw “does not have Davidson’s charisma.” Ted Jeffery, a unionist campaigner in Scotland, consultant and deputy editor of political blog Comment Central, told me it was “almost like she achieved the impossible… It’s difficult in many ways to see how Carlaw could do even better and it feels like there is a great sense that now we have lost Davidson the only way is to lose seats and to go down, so he’s got a real fight on his hands.” As Rifkind made clear however, he does have strengths and is ultimately a good choice, stating that “we are always friendly when we meet. He… is likeable and well respected.”

Davidson had become an increasingly critical voice against Boris Johnson and his Brexit policies before she resigned in August last year; perhaps Carlaw will form a better relationship between the two parties. Scotland and England seem more divided than ever, but perhaps the two parties can forge a successful partnership. Carlaw has been a supporter of Johnson during his time as interim leader, suggesting a positive momentum for their own relationship. Callum Laidlaw, Conservative Councillor for the Portobello and Craigmillar Ward, states that “Jackson has met regularly with the prime minister as interim leader and it was clear at party conference that the two have a good working relationship... I am sure he will work effectively with the UK government to demonstrate the value that the Union brings to the people of Scotland.” Rifkind agrees, saying “I would assume Carlaw will have a good relationship with Johnson. Johnson will not wish to damage Conservative prospects at the Holyrood elections, which could be very important in wrecking Sturgeon’s drive for a second [independence] referendum.”

In his 2020 leadership campaign, Carlaw was supported by Davidson, Fraser and other Scottish Tory notables including Annie Wells and Liz Smith. Fraser, MSP for Mid Scotland and Fife and the Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Finance tells me that, despite opposing him previously, he backed him this time because “I have worked closely with Jackson Carlaw for many years. He is a team player, willing to listen to advice, but prepared to take tough decisions as necessary.” He proved “since August last year his abilities as interim leader and his capacity to be an energetic opponent of Nicola Sturgeon.” Carlaw has however recently told the BBC that he will stand up for Scotland’s interests, even if these happen to be at odds with the UK party position. Yet he hopes to work with the UK government as a direct opposite to what he perceives as the SNP’s intransigent opposition to all things Westminster. He wants to prioritise education, health and housing over tired constitutional questions.

During his campaign, Carlaw called for a move towards “blue-collar Conservatism” based on centrist policies, to attract voters from “middle Scotland.” It may not have the same ring to it as “middle England,” but if the concept is translatable and the success of Johnson’s Conservatives in the December 2019 election is anything to go by, the Scottish Tories could certainly utilise this formula successfully. In another move that echoes the Conservatives across the border, Carlaw has stated that he wants to overhaul the selection procedures so that MSP candidates running in 2021 are more diverse and therefore better representatives of Scotland.

Carlaw won the leadership contest with over 75 per cent of the vote share and the support of all the party’s leading councillors. Laidlaw says this is because “With less than 15 months until the 2021 [Holyrood] elections I think many were concerned that with a completely new leadership under [rival candidate] Michelle Ballantyne there would not be enough time to bed-in before the campaign begun. As such, many felt that Jackson was the tried and tested leader, though I know many ordinary councillors backed Ballantyne, who was clear that councillors should play a greater role and I expect that this will be reflected in Jackson’s approach to leadership.”

Carlaw is popular within the party, but he may need to up his credentials. Trying to find an external perspective of the new leader, the Labour MP for Edinburgh South, Ian Murray, simply told me “I’ve never met him.” It is possible this is a consequence of Carlaw never having been an MP, and therefore not forging the links and connections that result from having the Westminster bubble in close proximity. Filling the charismatic vacuum left by Davidson will prove no easy task. Yet Jeffery remains optimistic: “We have seen over the last year, young Conservative activist groups and grassroots organisations being set up, Blue Beyond are a fine example with their own Scottish branch. If organisations and people carry on what Davidson did so well then I think they will be fine.”