Update: the deal was passed subsequent to this article being published. Read on to read Siobhán Fenton's analysis of its contents.
After three years of deadlock at Stormont, a deal to see the devolved parliament return appears to be finally within grasp. Last night the British and Irish governments announced they have drawn up a draft deal which they are urging the parties to sign.
After many deadline extensions and hours of fruitless talks, the 62-page document, entitled “New Decade, New Approach,” is the last chance for Northern Ireland’s political parties to reach an agreement. Will they take it?
The timing of the announcement was not insignificant: yesterday marked exactly three years to the day since Sinn Féin resigned from the power-sharing coalition with the Democratic Unionist Party. Despite the dramatic events of that day, few in either the DUP or Sinn Féin could have imagined, or indeed wanted, the deadlock to last as long as it now has.
Infamous and oft-repeated red lines by both the parties soon became entrenched: Sinn Féin wouldn’t return to government unless legislation was introduced to protect and promote the Irish language; the DUP wouldn’t return if it was. Both parties became prisoners of their own tough talk and compromise became impossible.
Three years without government in Northern Ireland has seen already struggling public services driven into the ground in the absence of ministers to set new policies or make decisions. In recent elections, the DUP and Sinn Féin have seen drops in voter support, which both have read as a sign that voters’ patience is wearing thin.
The British government has warned them that if they do not reach a deal by Monday 13th January, it will call a snap Stormont election which will likely see both parties punished at the polls.
Therefore, the draft text published last night is a lifeline for both parties to save themselves from the corner they have backed themselves into for three years. It may be their last opportunity to negotiate from a position of strength—and avoid a drubbing at the ballot box which could see them return with fewer seats and less clout.
However, to help ease the humiliation of the DUP’s climb down, the party has said it will have a veto over some Irish language changes. DUP MP Jeffrey Donaldson told the BBC: “We will not agree to standards that impose Irish on people who don’t speak it. There will be no compulsory Irish in schools and there will be no Irish road signs.”
Furthermore, the draft agreement also gives official status and a commissioner for Ulster Scots, a dialect spoken by some unionists.
Another success for the DUP is a pledge to provide more services to support former armed forces members, including the potential to implement the Armed Forces Covenant, something which the DUP has long campaigned for. The treatment of military personnel in Northern Ireland is hugely controversial due to allegations that British soldiers murdered people during the Troubles. As a result, the Covenant has not been implemented in the region; now, it could help the DUP gain grassroots support and distract from concessions elsewhere.
In the last Assembly allegations of misuse were rife, including when the DUP blocked equal marriage despite it having the backing of a majority of Assembly members. There had been rumours that this would be overhauled and an outside adjudicator would oversee the petition’s use. The DUP has strongly resisted this.
Now, it seems, the other parties appear to have backed down. According to “New Decade, New Approach,” the petition mechanism will remain largely intact. It will now require the backing of more than one party to trigger it, allowing other parties to say they secured some changes—in reality, however, it appears likely that it will still be used widely.
Last night, the parties were scrambling to read through the document and a frenzy of meetings have been scheduled today with senior politicians, grassroots party members and other stakeholders to work out whether they will back it. The quick turnaround is likely an attempt to rush the deal through before either of the two main parties can be subject to backlash from party hardliners.
In February 2018, there were rumours that a deal had been struck on a similar line to this—with provisions for both the Irish language and Ulster Scots. However, despite signing up to it, Foster faced major backlash from her own party members and traditional Protestant organisation the Orange Order within 24 hours of the deal being leaked, and she had to pull out.
Today at Stormont, the politicians and media wait with bated breath. There is a strong feeling that this is an absolute last chance for a political class and a political system which should have run out of chances long ago. If this deal fails, it is difficult to see how an agreement may ever be reached.
After three years of deadlock at Stormont, a deal to see the devolved parliament return appears to be finally within grasp. Last night the British and Irish governments announced they have drawn up a draft deal which they are urging the parties to sign.
After many deadline extensions and hours of fruitless talks, the 62-page document, entitled “New Decade, New Approach,” is the last chance for Northern Ireland’s political parties to reach an agreement. Will they take it?
The timing of the announcement was not insignificant: yesterday marked exactly three years to the day since Sinn Féin resigned from the power-sharing coalition with the Democratic Unionist Party. Despite the dramatic events of that day, few in either the DUP or Sinn Féin could have imagined, or indeed wanted, the deadlock to last as long as it now has.
Infamous and oft-repeated red lines by both the parties soon became entrenched: Sinn Féin wouldn’t return to government unless legislation was introduced to protect and promote the Irish language; the DUP wouldn’t return if it was. Both parties became prisoners of their own tough talk and compromise became impossible.
Three years without government in Northern Ireland has seen already struggling public services driven into the ground in the absence of ministers to set new policies or make decisions. In recent elections, the DUP and Sinn Féin have seen drops in voter support, which both have read as a sign that voters’ patience is wearing thin.
The British government has warned them that if they do not reach a deal by Monday 13th January, it will call a snap Stormont election which will likely see both parties punished at the polls.
Therefore, the draft text published last night is a lifeline for both parties to save themselves from the corner they have backed themselves into for three years. It may be their last opportunity to negotiate from a position of strength—and avoid a drubbing at the ballot box which could see them return with fewer seats and less clout.
What does the deal say?
So what does it contain? In short, a series of sensible compromises that can enable both the DUP and Sinn Féin to claim some wins over the other, without either emerging as an obvious victor. The Irish language will be given official status, facilities will be provided for it to be spoken more at Stormont (via simultaneous translation) and a commissioner will be appointed to promote the language.However, to help ease the humiliation of the DUP’s climb down, the party has said it will have a veto over some Irish language changes. DUP MP Jeffrey Donaldson told the BBC: “We will not agree to standards that impose Irish on people who don’t speak it. There will be no compulsory Irish in schools and there will be no Irish road signs.”
Furthermore, the draft agreement also gives official status and a commissioner for Ulster Scots, a dialect spoken by some unionists.
Another success for the DUP is a pledge to provide more services to support former armed forces members, including the potential to implement the Armed Forces Covenant, something which the DUP has long campaigned for. The treatment of military personnel in Northern Ireland is hugely controversial due to allegations that British soldiers murdered people during the Troubles. As a result, the Covenant has not been implemented in the region; now, it could help the DUP gain grassroots support and distract from concessions elsewhere.
A concerning petition
Also of note is the future of the Petition Of Concern; effectively a veto mechanism which can be triggered by individual parties to block legislation.In the last Assembly allegations of misuse were rife, including when the DUP blocked equal marriage despite it having the backing of a majority of Assembly members. There had been rumours that this would be overhauled and an outside adjudicator would oversee the petition’s use. The DUP has strongly resisted this.
Now, it seems, the other parties appear to have backed down. According to “New Decade, New Approach,” the petition mechanism will remain largely intact. It will now require the backing of more than one party to trigger it, allowing other parties to say they secured some changes—in reality, however, it appears likely that it will still be used widely.
Public pressure—and party backlash
Finally, and crucially, the British government has announced it will release more funding for Northern Ireland’s ailing health service, including a pledge to hire more nurses. Concern for the healthcare system unites people across Northern Ireland’s sectarian divide, and such funding will have mass public appeal and put pressure on the parties to back the deal.Last night, the parties were scrambling to read through the document and a frenzy of meetings have been scheduled today with senior politicians, grassroots party members and other stakeholders to work out whether they will back it. The quick turnaround is likely an attempt to rush the deal through before either of the two main parties can be subject to backlash from party hardliners.
In February 2018, there were rumours that a deal had been struck on a similar line to this—with provisions for both the Irish language and Ulster Scots. However, despite signing up to it, Foster faced major backlash from her own party members and traditional Protestant organisation the Orange Order within 24 hours of the deal being leaked, and she had to pull out.
Today at Stormont, the politicians and media wait with bated breath. There is a strong feeling that this is an absolute last chance for a political class and a political system which should have run out of chances long ago. If this deal fails, it is difficult to see how an agreement may ever be reached.
