Progressives: things may not be as hopeless as you think



It’s the new year. We’re back to work. We face three months of winter. And the country is staring down the barrel of five years of absolute rule by a narcissist with an unassailable majority who seems to show every intention of driving people’s livelihoods into a wall. Just how bad are things going to get?

Nobody could blame you for feeling gloomy. In all circumstances, Brexit is going to happen, and it is going to go wrong. The next 12 months will bring a comprehensive humbling. There are a few potential scenarios. The first, (the least damaging) is that Boris Johnson realises he is not going to deliver a complex trade deal in record time, and requests an extension. The second is that the clock simply runs down and we tumble off the edge of the cliff in December. That would be horrific for people’s jobs and lives. The third, and perhaps likeliest scenario is that Johnson realises he has been trapped by his own hubris and concedes to every EU demand. Brussels will act ruthlessly in its own interests, the UK becomes a de facto satellite state, and the country is totally humiliated.

The prime minister is also facing a uniquely febrile constitutional environment, and beyond his ability to navigate. Johnson has nowhere near the intellect or skill of Nicola Sturgeon and she could both out-argue and outplay him. Both Scottish and Northern Irish nationalists have made electoral gains and are moving in on the great prize of an independence referendum and border poll respectively. The Union has never looked so fragile.

Then there is the broad attempt to re-write Britain’s political culture and its ground rules. So far we are looking at a big reduction in the numbers of MPs, a recalibration of the entire civil service, government by mavericks and self-proclaimed weirdos, and the as-yet obscure “page 48” of the Tory manifesto, which could herald, for example, new curbs on the right to judicial review.

In other words, some grim years await. And yet, consider that it may not be as bad as you think.

Johnson could lose credibility very quickly. His big majority now means he, and he alone, will own Brexit. If it is to be a success, he must show us how. If he is seen to mishandle it, he will have nowhere to hide. This could unfold almost imperceptibly at first. If people feel their rights at work are being compromised, or they actually lose their jobs, they may ask how and why. Johnson will likely attempt to blame Remainers, the EU and foreigners in general. Voters may choose to fix the blame more closely on the people governing them.

We also still don’t know what the new Tory parliamentary party looks like in action. Fractures could emerge in ways we still haven’t predicted. Margaret Thatcher and John Major were both invincible in their parties too, until they weren’t.

There are, moreover, preliminary indications that Johnson could be about to face some serious opposition. An early poll of Labour members suggests that Keir Starmer is the most popular leadership candidate. He appears to be offering a programme far to the left of New Labour, incorporating much of what was popular in Jeremy Corbyn’s vision, but without the historic baggage and electoral toxicity Corbyn came to embody. There is no rule that says Labour cannot seriously challenge the 2024 election. In 2005 the Tory party won five fewer seats than Labour did last month, and five years later won the next election.

Thanks to our appalling electoral system, we also still have no concrete evidence whatsoever that the country is in favour of either Brexit or Johnson. 52 per cent of voters last month endorsed parties explicitly backing either a new referendum or an outright Remain position. Early analysis suggests that the election result was a verdict against the Labour Party much more than an endorsement of the PM or ten years of austerity. The fact people in the north or midlands may have lent Johnson their vote does not mean they like him, trust him or will do so again. We are not all Brexiters now—or Tories.

Indeed, Johnson, in his hubris, may well have over-calculated the personal endorsement given him. As such, he could now seriously over-reach. While in isolation, he may get away with some constitutional reforms, taken together they could provoke a backlash among the public as well as the media. British voters may like toffs but not tinpot dictators. It is clear Johnson still wants to be world king. It is less clear his ambition is respected by the people of Bishop Auckland and Blyth Valley.

On top of all this, the pro-EU movement is now stronger and more mobilised in the UK than perhaps anywhere else in Europe. The progressive left and centre-left is not shutting up and not going away. For every week of the next five years we will campaign, talk, and attempt to persuade our fellow citizens. The next election campaign is already beginning. So is the next referendum campaign to stay in the EU—whether that takes place in three years or 30.

Frankly, the nation still doesn’t understand itself or its place in the world. The next five years will be constantly turbulent and frequently brutal. But each day we must remember that all bad things come to an end. New people will begin to ask, more frequently and forcefully, why we ever attempted the project of Brexit to begin with. When our moment comes, we will be ready.