The new electoral reality in Northern Ireland and how the DUP hit rock bottom

The DUP’s fall from political grace has been as brutal as it has been inevitable. In the wee hours after the 2017 general election, roars of celebration from party leader Arlene Foster and her 10 MPs echoed around the Belfast electoral count centre, as they found out that they would hold the balance of power at Westminster. Two years later, in the same room, Foster and her colleagues could only look on despondent and forlorn as the results trickled in.

The strong majority for Boris Johnson means the Conservatives no longer need the backing of the DUP to govern. Despite the prime minister’s florid talk of wanting to preserve and prioritise Northern Ireland’s union with the rest of the UK, most people in Northern Ireland strongly doubt his word. The DUP should now expect to find itself cast aside by the Tories as suddenly as it was embraced in 2017.

To a certain extent, the party only has itself to blame. By backing Brexit in 2016, without any vision for how the Irish border should look, it committed a catastrophic strategic error that has haunted it ever since. Upon entering the confidence and supply agreement with the Conservatives, the party saw an opportunity to redeem itself and wrangle out of its Brexit quandary as it received countless pledges from both Theresa May and Johnson that Northern Ireland was leaving the EU on the same terms as the rest of the UK. However, it has been left high and dry by Johnson, whose Brexit deal creates a de facto border down the Irish Sea.

Worse still for the DUP, the party also had a poor performance at home. It has lost two seats—North Belfast and South Belfast—while also failing to pick up North Down (a seat previously held by an independent unionist MP, which had been there for the taking following her retirement).

Especially worrying for the party is the North Belfast seat, which had been held by deputy leader Nigel Dodds and has now swung to Sinn Féin. The ousting of such a senior figure is a major blow. That the seat has gone to arch-rivals Sinn Féin will rub salt in the wound.

The party’s dalliance with the Conservatives is now viewed with derision and embarrassment by many voters and, privately, many DUP politicians. Most importantly, however, it enraged Northern Ireland’s pro-Remain centre ground. The region voted Remain in the 2016 referendum but was effectively treated as though it had been as ardently pro-Brexit as the DUP. This energised Northern Ireland’s pro-EU, progressive, centre-ground and saw the SDLP and Sinn Féin enter unprecedented pacts with each other in response to voters’ cries for anyone but a DUP MP.

Notably, North Down has been won by the Alliance party, a centrist, pro-Remain party allied with the Lib Dems. The party has no official position on a united Ireland but is largely perceived locally as a soft unionist party. It appears that younger voters from unionist backgrounds who are pro-Remain have switched to backing it. While Alliance did not manage to win any other seats, it has seen a surge in vote share in other traditionally unionist constituencies. A new generation is growing up in Northern Ireland and prioritising the union with the EU above that with the UK.

Compounding the DUP’s difficulties is the fact that there is currently no devolved government in Northern Ireland, following the collapse of Stormont in 2017. This means the party no longer has government ministers or the ability for its MLAs to pass legislation.

Furthermore, the spectre of the Renewable Heat Incentive inquiry also looms large over the party. The RHI scandal, dubbed “cash for ash” locally, was the source of Stormont’s collapse in 2017, after Foster was accused of being responsible for a mismanaged scheme which cost the taxpayer some half a billion pounds. (Foster denies any wrongdoing.) Many wonder if she will survive as party leader following the imminent results of a public inquiry into the debacle.

In short, the DUP is at rock bottom following a perfect storm of scenarios that it has failed to meet with tact or long-term strategy. However, the results are not only a poor showing for the DUP as a party but unionism more broadly. The Ulster Unionist Party, a slightly more moderate counterpart to the DUP, failed to pick up any seats at all. The hardline Traditional Unionist Voice did not contest any seats.

For the first time in Northern Ireland’s history, unionists do not hold a majority of Westminster seats. Of the 18 constituencies, seven are now held by Sinn Féin, two are held by the SDLP, and one is held by Alliance. This will be a cause for concern for unionists across Northern Ireland. It reflects a wider trend which has seen unionists lose their majority in Belfast City Council in 1997 and their majority at Stormont in 2017. This is partly because birth rates are higher among the nationalist community but also because younger voters from unionist backgrounds are turning towards more moderate groups like Alliance.

These trends pose a considerable threat to unionist ideology and reflect a new reality, in which the DUP will continue to struggle to have the dominance it could once take for granted.

It is worth noting, however, that Sinn Féin also didn’t fare well in this election. In Foyle, it lost the seat to SDLP leader Colum Eastwood, who won with a thumping majority of more than 17,000. The win in North Belfast means it returns with the same number of seats overall. Sinn Féin saw a vote drop of 6.7 per cent across Northern Ireland, as some voters irked by its MPs’ refusal to take up their seats in Westminster instead backed the SDLP to go to London and take part in crucial Brexit votes.

Therefore, the results have been much more complicated than merely a bad day for the DUP and a boost for a united Ireland. Instead, Northern Ireland’s moderate voices in the SDLP and Alliance are benefiting from the DUP’s misfortunes much more than their arch rivals in Sinn Féin.

The DUP currently stands at rock bottom. Undoubtedly, it will now embark on a period of soul searching. With impeccable timing, a fresh round of negotiations between the DUP and Sinn Féin about returning to Stormont is scheduled for this Monday. It is possible that the newly chastened DUP may cut its losses and agree to a revival of Stormont so that it can still retain some power and influence.