The banning of a Universal Credit ad shows all the ways this election could be a disaster for the Tories

You can buy a lot with £225,000. Several houses in many parts of the country; a few Ferraris with cash spare; or 45 first-class return flights to Australia leaving tomorrow, if you wanted to bring your entire street on holiday. The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) decided to spend the sum on a nine-week advertising campaign for Universal Credit that has now been condemned by the Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) for misleading the public.

With Universal Credit now six years behind schedule and having attracted criticism from myriad charities, as well as all opposition parties, the DWP embarked on an attempt to detoxify the policy, with ads posting “myths” and “facts” about the scheme. The ASA reported receiving a total of 44 complaints about the claims in the adverts, from individuals and charities including Motor Neurone Disease Association, the Disability Benefits Consortium and anti-poverty charity the Zacchaeus 2000 Trust. Investigating, the ASA found that, ironically, many of the “myths” presented were facts, and the “facts” the DWP put forward were in fact myths—or at least, impossible to prove.

Three claims were unsubstantiated: that Universal Credit can be paid directly to landlords; that claimants can obtain an advance from the Jobcentre; and that Universal Credit moves people into work quicker. The charities have now called for the DWP to apologise: all support many people struggling to get by on the benefits system, and attacked the department for perpetuating false information that could confuse people in poverty and with disabilities, struggling to make ends meet.

The scheme has been in complete disarray for years: the brainchild of Iain Duncan Smith, technical issues were blamed initially, but it has become clear the entire department is not fit for purpose. Attempting to lower the cost of the benefits bill by introducing work capability assessments for severely disabled people, instituting caps on benefits, and trying to rollout Universal Credit has cost the department huge sums, with the National Audit Office saying the scheme has “not delivered value for money” and it is “uncertain that it ever will.”

For people on Universal Credit, waiting for their first payment, or struggling to have inaccuracies in their payments rectified, small sums make a huge difference. Most people couldn’t last five weeks without any money for food. Most people’s landlords are unlikely to take kindly to late payments; many refuse to accept anyone on benefits regardless. One former veteran I spoke to had been waiting eight weeks for Universal Credit after multiple administrative errors at his local Jobcentre. He had struggled to get even a small advance payment from the Jobcentre, and lost sleep over the fear of eviction.

For those people, hearing the DWP have spent £225,000 on propaganda to spread unsubstantiated claims is unlikely to endear them to the Conservative Party. But in truth, the ad campaign was not for them: the people in the process of applying for Universal Credit knew the facts. The advertisements were for other voters, attempting to change their mind about a scheme they'd read so much criticism about.

Unfortunately for the Conservatives, the ASA’s ruling has come at precisely the wrong moment. When Boris Johnson is planning to argue his party’s record in government speaks for itself, the news instead reveals they have wasted what appears to voters to be a huge sum of money. And what it was spent on wasn't even accurate.

For all that political parties can plan out their electoral campaigns, all sorts of events can catch you out. All parties have an electoral grid: a campaign diary that lists the issues and policies they plan to focus on, on any given day, as polling day draws ever closer.

But politics and life are unpredictable. Yesterday, both Jacob Rees-Mogg and Andrew Bridgen we’re forced to apologise for their comments on Grenfell Tower. Today, just before the official Conservative campaign launch, Welsh secretary Alun Cairns resigned after backing a candidate who had collapsed a rape trial. And the ASA delivered their stinging verdict on the DWP’s dubious advertising campaign.

The incumbent party are usually seen to have the upper hand in elections. But the Conservatives need to prove both that their policies work, and that—in spite of Boris Johnson’s past record—they are a party that can be trusted to be honest. With this ruling, they’ve been found to be grossly incompetent, if not grossly dishonest, at precisely the worst moment for their campaign.