The last chance for Remain and for the left: a general election, now

Remainers should be honest. The last week caught us off-guard. Most of us were not expecting a deal. Most did not expect the EU to agree and sign it off so quickly. Many did not think it would find approval with the most hardcore Brexiteers. And we certainly did not think that there was any way parliament could deliver the entire package by 31st October.

On most of those, we were wrong. Once Boris Johnson conceded the fundamental point of a different tariff regime for Northern Ireland—which Theresa May famously said no prime minister could ever accept—he unlocked the path to a deal which met Ireland’s red line of no customs infrastructure on the island and the hardline Brexiteers’ red line that Great Britain should leave the customs union. Preserving the British union was, it turned out, far less important than leaving the European one. On Tuesday night every single Tory Brexiteer walked through the lobbies to support Johnson’s deal.

We were, however, right on one key point. There is no way that parliament could deliver this package by 31st October. It was an outrage that the government ever asked it to.

There were two votes last night. The first was on the bill in principle. This passed by 30 votes, thanks to 19 Labour MPs—mostly representing Leave seats—who endorsed it. This should not cause undue alarm. The vast majority of these MPs will vote for a customs-union amendment, and have not signalled that they will vote for the deal if it is not amended. If a customs-union amendment does pass, the government will not be able to accept it and the whole package will likely collapse.

The second vote was far more important. This was on the programme motion for the bill, which dictated the amount of time allocated to debating it. For no other reason than to meet an arbitrary deadline, the government allotted the most important legislation of our lifetimes just three days of parliamentary debate. More time was given to the Wild Animals in Circuses Act.

This wanton act of government contempt epitomises the Brexit process. For too many in parliament (and the media), this has never been about the life-changing political substance of Brexit but political soap-opera: the power struggles in the Tory party, the leadership of May, and now the vanity of Johnson. The national interest has never even been a sub-plot. There was no reason—none—to fast-track this bill except to save Johnson from having to extend Brexit by, potentially, a few days or weeks. A government entrusted to look after our welfare and security was more interested in one man’s rhetorical ditch than millions of people’s actual livelihoods.

In the end, enough MPs showed they cared more about safeguarding the country’s future than sparing the PM's embarrassment. Only five Labour MPs endorsed the programme motion, while a number of Tory independents, including recent cabinet ministers Philip Hammond and Rory Stewart, voted against. This was the lifeline both the country and Remain movement needed. Parliament will have the time it needs to scrutinise this bill. More significantly, the EU will almost certainly now accept the PM's forced extension request. Indeed, European Council president Donald Tusk has already publicly recommended it.

Let us then face the reality before us. The deal has, in theory, the numbers to pass. Everything will depend on the importance Labour “pro-dealers” give to the customs union. We have to accept that the numbers are still not there for a second referendum, no matter how hard Labour whips for it. Even if this parliament could summon a tiny majority, it would prove all but impossible to force through the weeks of necessary legislation in the teeth of ferocious government opposition.

Parliament is deadlocked, nothing is resolved, and the government has a majority of minus 45. We must therefore accept the inevitability of a general election.

We know there won't be a no-deal scenario: the EU will not push us off a cliff now we have asked not to jump. Therefore the election will come either after an extension and before Brexit, or after Brexit has been delivered and in the first weeks of a transition period.

After Brexit, all Johnson will have to cope with is the embarrassment of breaking his pledge. Will people care? Many right-of-centre Remainers will be exhausted and demoralised and fall back into the Tory fold. The only concrete offer Labour or the Lib Dems could make is to grant a referendum on rejoining—a vastly more complex process than revoking, and not one solely in the UK’s gift. Crucially, during the transition period everything will remain the same, and at the moment of an election the negotiations will not be fully underway. Tory Brexiteers will falsely vindicate their project and themselves, while many voters will not appreciate that the economic damage will only kick in months down the line. That is not optimal ground for the opposition parties.

The only chance for both Remainers and the left is to hold a general election before Brexit. Certainly, Johnson will present this as a people vs parliament election, and present himself as the only person fighting for “ordinary Britons” against MPs, judges and general traitors. But that offer will carry significant weaknesses.

First, he will have to campaign for an actual deal, laden with compromises and flaws and the naked promise of reduced prosperity and protections. Sunlit uplands are a lot harder to advertise in the middle of December. Second, Nigel Farage will go on the warpath. There is a hardline fringe of Leavers who want no deal, or who hate Johnson’s deal and will be furious with yet another delay. They will need somewhere to go. The Brexit Party has no reason to sit itself out of existence or do Johnson favours for nothing in return.

Conversely, the opposition parties have something tangible and immediate to give. Brexit has not been done. The deal is palpably dire. The British people would never in a million years have endorsed it had it featured on the referendum ballot paper in 2016. Labour, the Lib Dems, SNP and others can now expose the alternative to remaining and urge voters to back them with the promise of a new referendum.

An election is not ideal. But Jeremy Corbyn must push for one now.

Let us also remember one final thing. Whatever happens, and despite all the spin, Johnson staked his entire premiership on one sole, cast-iron, existential pledge: that he would take us out of the European Union by 31st October. He will not. Johnson dug this ditch himself and will now attempt to crawl out of it. Only an election can keep him there—and keep the rest of us in the EU.