With parliament in recess and a potential conflict in Ukraine dominating the headlines, a little domestic pressure has lifted from Boris Johnson. The reprieve will not last long. In the space of two months, the prime minister has gone from insisting in parliament that all rules were followed to forcibly answering a police questionnaire about his own attendance at lockdown parties.
This episode has, and continues to be, a moral and political disaster for the Conservative Party. The problem is that it transcends the shattered authority of one man. It actually transcends the “partygate” issue altogether. The Tories may be in deep trouble whatever now happens.
Let us consider, for a moment, the best-case scenario for the opposition: that Johnson stays. Of course Labour cannot admit it publicly, and no doubt many in the party do genuinely want Johnson removed in the national interest, but the prime minister’s survival is the surest way to guarantee a Labour victory at the next election. Two-thirds of the public want him to resign; he is now more unpopular than even previous Tory leaders Theresa May, William Hague and Iain Duncan Smith at their lowest points; and history suggests that once voters have made up their mind about a leader—as they did with John Major, Gordon Brown and May—they do not change it. The longer Johnson stays, the more damage he will do to his party’s brand.
The likelier prospect is that, even if Johnson survives the next few weeks, he will be removed before the next election. For the Conservatives, this is a question of politics, not morality: they will only dispatch him if they are persuaded that a successor will stand a better chance at the polls. And yet this course, too, is fraught with risk.
A leadership election will bring months of in-fighting, chaos and turmoil. Even if a new leader can distance themselves from partygate, the problem is what comes next.
The first issue is the personalities themselves. According to a YouGov poll of Conservative Party members last month, only Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss are considered more viable leaders than Johnson. Neither is a sure bet to improve electoral fortunes.
Sunak is assumed to be the most likely successor. Over the last two years he has cultivated widespread popularity thanks to a slick social media operation and, crucially, government largesse. Covid loans, furlough and self-employed grants helped millions of individuals and businesses during the pandemic; coronavirus was a personal success for him. But that period is now over. Sunak’s most recent policies have been a National Insurance rise and a loan on fuel bills, both of which have met with sharp public and political resistance. He is coming under increased scrutiny in media interviews and his own colleagues are questioning his instincts. To compound matters, he has found a formidable opponent in Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who in concert with Keir Starmer is gaining traction with her economic attack lines.
Truss’s advantage is that she is not directly associated with current economic trouble and she is widely popular with Tory members, but after a long history of bizarre public statements and gaffes she is still viewed with derision by a broad section of the public. Her flag-waving trade deals are not a natural vote-winner beyond a cohort of Conservative true believers, and as foreign secretary she is now perhaps best known for being humiliated in Moscow by her Russian counterpart.
Further traps await as Truss addresses the Northern Ireland Protocol, from which the government has threatened to renege ever since the Brexit deal actually came into force. If she sparks chaos by triggering Article 16 of the Protocol, and thus a trade war with the EU, she will further damage the economy, alienate moderate Leave voters and repel Remainers. If, on the other hand, she finally puts the issue to bed, she will anger the hardliners on whom she naturally depends. More to the point, she will stand no chance of rallying the only electoral coalition the Tories have been able to rely on in recent times—the one based around Brexit.
When push comes to shove, Sunak and Truss are deeply traditional Conservatives. Both Thatcherite libertarians, they are more ideological than Johnson and less charismatic. There is little evidence either will appeal to the economically left-wing voters of the red wall—even those who endorsed Brexit. Sunak, a public-school educated millionaire, will particularly struggle for credibility. Other potential candidates, such as Sajid Javid or Jeremy Hunt, have even less star power. The result of waging a war of ideological purity is that potential big hitters can scarcely now engage with a Tory members’ dinner, let alone anyone outside it.
Despite all this, opposition pessimism is widespread. The most common arguments since the election have been that the Tory victory is simply too large to overcome, that the Conservatives are now too established and that Labour is still too weak. Consensus dictates that overturning an 80-seat majority must be a two-term enterprise. Far less often do people ask what, precisely, might encourage people to vote Conservative again.
The next election will be fought not just on personalities but policy and lived experience—and the sunlit uplands seem hard to discern.
We cannot predict what the dominant issues will be in 2023 or 2024, but the news is unlikely to be good. The effects of Brexit will continue to be felt, if not mentioned: the suppressed trade and depleted workforce, with their knock-on effects for GDP and tax revenue, are forming a perfect storm with the tail end of the pandemic. More significant is people’s direct experience: the cost of living crisis looks set to spiral, rather than recede. Energy, food and fuel prices are rising sharply, and the tax burden—already heavy—will imminently grow. Add stagnating wages, the shortage of affordable housing and increased rent prices, and the public is unlikely to be feeling optimistic any time soon. Voters may, at times, be ideological, but they also go shopping. At the time of the next election most people will find their lives harder than they were the last time.
Of course, the Tories cannot simply lose an election; Labour has to win it. Some recent polls show Labour’s lead tightening when it should be expanding. And yet on key metrics, the party’s prospects are bright. It has gained public confidence on traditionally difficult issues such as crime and the economy. Starmer is growing in stature. It will not be enough for the opposition simply to watch the government implode, but nor must it perform a miracle.
For the first time in two years, the cards look stacked against the Conservatives. Their problems are systemic—and just beginning.
