The beauty of by-elections is that just a few hundred voters from a small town in West Yorkshire can, overnight, fundamentally change the direction and mood of British politics. This morning, the media were expecting to be reporting on a leadership challenge to Keir Starmer, a new civil war breaking out within the Labour Party and dominating the summer months, and yet another triumphant episode for the all-conquering Boris Johnson. But because of those additional 323 voters in Batley and Spen, giving Labour a small majority, it is Starmer who is travelling to the north victorious, breathing a deep sigh of relief and with some much-needed political space earned.
On the face of it, the celebratory mood across the Labour Party is merely evidence of its troubling position. The next election is probably only two years away—an opposition ready for government should not be so delighted at simply holding ground, but instead be taking seats from the Conservatives. Labour’s majority was dramatically reduced. Its share of the vote is on a downward trajectory.
But this ignores the dynamics of a by-election which could loom large in the chronicles of British politics, alongside those in Darlington in 1983 or Orpington in 1962. The Conservatives were, rightly, very confident of taking this seat in the context of their large national poll lead and important local factors. The Independent pro-Brexit candidate in the constituency, who gained over 6,000 votes in 2019, was not standing. As seen in Hartlepool just a few weeks ago, the Tories assumed that many of these votes would transfer to them, potentially completely eating up the 3,000 majority Labour was defending. Even more worrying for Labour was George Galloway’s poisonous campaign working in the Conservatives’ favour, as Galloway aimed his arsenal of divisive rhetoric at traditional Labour voters.
Yet, despite this context, Labour won. This will rightly be heralded as a ray of light amidst the general gloom for progressives. Of course, the symbolic significance of this particular by-election means this triumph is even more powerful. Watching Kim Leadbeater’s gracious victory speech, just over five years after her sister Jo Cox MP was murdered in Birstall by a far-right terrorist, having defiantly faced down the aggressive Galloway campaign, was as moving as it was impressive. Simply put, she is a remarkable woman who undoubtedly deserved to win.
And ultimately, this is her victory. Whilst visiting the constituency during the campaign, it was striking how popular she was personally. People were more likely to say they were voting for “Kim” than they were open about voting for Labour. I have never witnessed a candidate who was so well-known. Many posters across the town and surrounding villages emphasised the “local,” rather than Labour, candidate and were more purple than they were red. The campaign, led by Sheffield Mayor Dan Jarvis MP and former Blair adviser Lance Price, had a certain independent streak that was undoubtedly the right approach considering Labour’s general malaise.
If Starmer cannot proclaim this win as his, he must use the political space it has given him. The first half of this year has seen Labour stagger, too often unable to build a consistent message or theme, whilst often flailing in its attempts to hold the Tories to account. The 48 hours after the local elections results in May, with the apparently aborted Labour reshuffle, revealed a naivety and disorganisation at the top of the party that was deeply worrying. The local election campaign itself was somewhat schizophrenic, beginning with a pledge to give NHS workers a pay rise, moving to a focus on a green new deal and ending with a photo-op of Starmer buying wallpaper.
More recently, as the Huffington Post’s Paul Waugh reported, Labour has pledged £15bn for an educational catch-up fund—a smart policy focus considering the government’s flagrant failings in this area—but some in the shadow cabinet were apparently not even aware of it, let alone the public. It is also remarkable that Labour failed to make an impact after porous border policies allowed variants of the virus to spread across the country, especially considering the Johnson government was essentially born from a promise of tighter border controls.
Starmer clearly knows that he, and the party, must improve to stand any chance of forming the next government. His personal ratings continue to slide worryingly (a poll today shows 60 per cent of the electorate do not think it is clear what he stands for, which is as much a concern as an opportunity). To combat the trend he has made wide-ranging changes in personnel in his office, reflecting the next stage of his leadership. On the frontbench he now has a shadow chancellor more suited to confronting Rishi Sunak as the furlough scheme comes to an end in September. He is receptive to advice and knows that the next six months will be crucial. His conference speech in September may be a defining moment.
The frustration about Starmer is that his instincts are correct—he has been firm on anti-Semitism, was right to not become trapped in a never-ending Brexit debate with Johnson, and has made progress in terms of the tone and focus of Labour’s political campaigning—but too often Labour appears mute or irrelevant. This, more than the seemingly endless existential crisis about what and whom Labour is for, is often about the nuts and bolts of politics: consistent messaging, themes that connect with voters Labour needs to win, reasonable but firm opposition, and the beginnings of a vision for the future.
This is all easier said than done—especially when, during the churn of day-to-day politics, you are also attempting to manage the chaotic internal politics of the Labour Party. The victory in Batley and Spen offers a reprieve for Starmer and his team: further time and space to get this right. His, and Labour’s, political prospects will depend on him taking advantage.
