Barack Obama visited Israel in July, but he's not the man who could really change things for Israelis and Palestinians. At least not yet. The man of the hour is 49-year-old Marwan Barghouti, the undisputed leader of "Young" Fatah, who may soon walk free from an Israeli jail in exchange for the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, captured by Hamas two years ago.
Barghouti, sentenced by an Israeli court to five consecutive life terms in 2004 for his role in the second intifada, has built up a huge following among Palestinians, who admire his history of street-level politics and his apparent political spotlessness, in stark contrast to the corrupt figures that populate the old guard of Fatah. Barghouti is widely thought to be the only authentic Fatah leader who can walk freely in Hamas-controlled Gaza without fear of retribution. As such, his release could revitalise the ailing middle east peace process.
Barghouti's release would come at a time when both sides continue to suffer weak political leadership. Israel's prime minister Ehud Olmert will likely be out of office when primaries for his Kadima party roll around in mid-September—or possibly even sooner, thanks to a police investigation of his finances. He will probably be replaced not by a Likud hardliner but by another Kadima figure—foreign minister Tzipi Livni is the current favourite—and the Labour party is likely to continue as junior partner in the government. Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas is also weak. Though his government is respected by global leaders and Israel, it rules only over Ramallah and other parts of the West Bank after Hamas took over in Gaza in June 2007.
"The Palestinians and the Israelis each have their own domestic problems," said Knesset member Haim Oron when I visited him in his office in Tel Aviv. Oron is the leader of Meretz, the left-wing party long identified with Israel's peace camp. He is also the Israeli closest to Barghouti, and a frequent visitor to his prison cell.
Although peace negotiations have been stalled for some years now, the broad issues remain the same. Any final settlement will fall somewhere within the boundaries laid out by the Geneva initiative and by the deal negotiated by President Clinton during his final moments in office. That is, there must be some recognition of the refugee problem, some agreement regarding Israeli settlements and perhaps a land swap to make up for those settlements that remain, and some accommodation, even if symbolic, regarding Jerusalem.
Support among Palestinians for a two-state solution remains strong. A June 2008 poll by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion found that 60 per cent of Palestinians supported the two-state solution while 30 per cent wanted a binational state on the whole of historic Palestine. And support for Fatah over Hamas has been growing. When Palestinians were asked who they preferred in a head-to-head between the leaders of the two main factions, 40 per cent went for Mahmoud Abbas and 19 per cent for Hamas's Ismael Haniyeh. Abbas, however, will not be around for long. His presidential term is up in 2009—although he might remain in office into 2010—and he has said he won't run again. Barghouti has already announced that he will run for the presidency following Abbas, whether in prison or out. In a mooted presidential two-way match-up, 61 per cent of Palestinians said they would vote for Barghouti and 34 per cent for Haniyyeh.
Israel understands the influence Barghouti has among Palestinians. A year ago, infrastructure minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer told Haaretz : "We have to find a suitable opportunity to release Barghouti. [He] is the man Israel needs to sell a final agreement
to the Palestinians." Barghouti has already produced a document, negotiated between factions of prisoners representing Hamas and Fatah—Israeli jails are hotbeds of political activity—calling for a Palestinian state alongside Israel, set by the pre-1967 borders.
A new US president—especially if it is Obama—will pick up the reins on a peace deal. However, the new president's priorities will be domestic and Iraq. So Israel and Palestine will be left for a while yet. That could provide breathing space for Barghouti to establish himself and then pave the way for Obama or McCain to finally bring an end to the conflict.
