Yemen–on a cliff edge

The decision of the House of Commons to reject military action against Syria was the right one and will be welcomed well beyond the borders of this troubled state. More than two million refugees and five million displaced within its borders since the conflict began paints a distressing picture. Change the figures, however, and you could be referring to the country of my birth, Yemen.

My Goan parents settled in south Yemen, as many of Indian origin did, as they travelled to the Gulf to find work. The country and its people have always been political. One of my first memories is watching a demonstration from my grandmother’s window. A mass crowd was calling for the resignation of a teacher who had broken some taboo. To this day I remember the shouts of “Go home Mrs Petree.” This is why, though I am surprised by the Newton’s cradle reaction and Bashar al-Assad’s draconian response to the uprising, I am not surprised that it has been mirrored to some degree in Yemen. Syria is a reminder of other countries in the region that teeter on the edge of civil war.

Closest to that cliff is Yemen. Although rich in history, it is now the poorest country in the Middle East. More than 40 per cent of Yemenis live on less than £1.25 a day; 44 per cent are undernourished, with 5m requiring emergency aid—a significant humanitarian crisis. The future stability of the state, and the region, hangs in the balance.

Poverty and insecurity amplify divisions in society and Yemen has these in abundance. The country has been, from the beginning of colonial rule to the era of my departure in the 1960s, one of division. Different communities have always lived closely, and it still has a complex patchwork of tribes and interests. Examples of conflict, actual and potential, are numerous. The south is dominated by competing elites, created in the era of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who still wield power. The north has seen fierce clashes between two non-state actors, the Huthis, a Zaidi Shia group and the Sunni Salafists.

During the Arab Spring, the divisions in Yemeni society came close to breaking point. Armed clashes between pro- and anti-government forces, involving the security forces and rival military and tribal factions in areas of the capital, resulted in many deaths. The removal of President Saleh and the election of Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi in February 2012 brought enough of the factions together to prevent a collapse into all-out civil war, but it was close. Ideological and sectarian conflicts continue and, if the living conditions and security of ordinary people, as I once was, do not improve, violence will resurface.

There are three key areas which need urgent attention from the UK if Yemen is to become stable. First, the humanitarian issues: a country with the second highest malnutrition rate in the world needs aid. I welcome the UK increasing its development budget for Yemen to over £60m this year, but it is a drop in the ocean in comparison to the $7.9bn pledged at successive Friends of Yemen conferences. The real issue is not how much is pledged, however, but how much is delivered, and most has not been. Britain, with its historical knowledge of the country and its seat at the top table of international organisations, is the best middle man to ensure that whatever money does materialise reaches those who need it most.

Second is the lack of long-term economic help. Currently the UK imports only £282,000 worth of Yemeni products and there has still been no decision on when direct flights, and significant trade, can resume. Britain provided security systems for Sana’a airport but stopped short of training the operators needed for this facility to be used; this could make a massive difference. I lead an initiative which was created to promote economic links between Britain and Yemen on a micro level—small steps can be effective in the short term. A macro road map is essential, however, if lasting improvement is to be achieved. This requires serious engagement from Britain and others. Only removing the wolf from the Yemeni door will allow the state to focus on becoming a bastion of stability in this desperately volatile region. This is of vital interest for Britain.

Third, physical security needs to be addressed. The uneasy peace created in recent years has been disturbed by serious attacks from al Qaeda, which has exploited the Arab Spring to expand its power in the region. Dramatically, the US and UK embassies were closed recently due to anticipated attacks on oil pipelines and key cities. Rather than withdrawing from Yemen in the face of these threats, we need to engage still further. A pillar to the government’s “Prevent” strategy is to encourage foreign nations to facilitate community engagement to combat radicalisation. The UK has some fantastic community led projects and translating some of the practical skills developed here could help Yemeni communities feel bonded against those who terrorise the state.

Yemen is a fragile state; the risk that it fails is real. The UK’s security is intrinsically linked with countries like Yemen and action against Syria would have been a disaster. We must be proactive to stop deaths on the streets of Sana’a now, to prevent deaths on the streets of London in the future. Syria is a salutary lesson about the consequences of inadequate engagement and Yemen is in a much more precarious position than seemed to be the case with Syria. Yemen should not be treated as a lost cause. It has the potential to become a stronghold of security in the region. Let us make sure we are celebrating a success story in years to come, not lamenting another avoidable Middle Eastern disaster.