Jeremy Corbyn, Labour leader, after launching Labour's official local election campaign at Mark Hall & Netteswell Community Association at Moot House in Harlow, Essex. ©Nick Ansell/PA Wire/Press Association Images
Jeremy Corbyn has more at stake in the May elections than any other party leader. In contrast, David Cameron, Nicola Sturgeon and Nigel Farage are much more focussed on June’s European Union referendum. As for Tim Farron, whose Lib Dem party is still on sabbatical, the real recovery will have to wait. So what can Labour expect from London, Scotland, Wales and the English local elections? And what should it expect?
The first question is easy. Sadiq Khan is likely to be elected London’s mayor. Labour will trumpet this as evidence that Corbyn’s leadership appeals to voters. Labour will brush off a terrible result in Scotland as a repeat of last year’s general election, and not Corbyn’s fault. Labour will slip back in Wales, and blame Ukip.
As for England’s local elections, a consensus is emerging that Labour will lose around 150 council seats. This is the projection of Britain’s two leading local election experts, Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, based on local by-election results since Corbyn became leader. Greg Cook, the Labour Party’s respected chief number-cruncher, has warned his colleagues to expect losses of 150-200 seats. Allowing for boundary changes, which slightly reduce the total number of seats being fought, this implies Labour holding around 1,100-1,500 seats.
Suppose Labour does slightly better and retains 1,200-1,250 council seats. Corbyn and his allies will claim this as a good result, but we should not be fooled. Any net losses would be a disaster. The only era in which the opposition lost ground in local elections was the 1980s—in 1982, under Michael Foot and 1985 under Neil Kinnock. The Conservatives went on to retain power in the subsequent general elections with 100-plus majorities.
A better way to view the results will be to look at the Britain-wide vote shares that the BBC and Rallings and Thrasher will project from the local election results. The last time these seats were contested was 2012. Those elections produced the equivalent of a seven point Labour lead. This was a modest lead for the mid-term, though nothing like the leads that opposition parties have won in the past prior to ousting the governing party. In 1995, in the first set of local elections after Tony Blair became party leader, Labour enjoyed a 22-point lead over the Tories; in Cameron’s first set of local elections, in 2006, the Tories enjoyed a 13-point lead. For Corbyn to claim success, Labour’s lead this May needs to be well into double figures.
Ah, say Corbyn’s supporters, even if we lose ground in provincial England, we’ll still capture London’s mayoralty. Now, it is true that recent polls have given Khan a growing lead over Zac Goldsmith. However, before anyone gets carried away, consider this.
First, Boris Johnson won last time through his personal appeal. He defeated Ken Livingstone by 52-48 per cent. On the same day, in the election of London’s Assembly, Labour enjoyed a nine-point lead over the Tories. Then, in last year’s general election, Labour once again enjoyed a nine-point lead over the Tories in London, which did not stop the Conservatives achieving an overall majority in the UK as a whole.
With Boris not standing, the current mayoral contest looks like a conventional Labour-Tory battle in a city that has moved steadily Labour’s way, relative to the rest of Britain. It follows that, if Corbyn is to claim any real success from London’s result, Khan must win big. Anything less than a nine-point victory would imply that Labour had moved backwards, since last year’s general election. For Labour to draw level with the Tories nationally, it needs a 16-point lead in London. And for the party to match the record of past oppositions that have gone on to win the following general election, Khan’s margin of victory needs to be at least 25 points.
As for Scotland, Labour has serious problems. Polls show the Tories breathing down Labour’s neck in the race for second place. For Labour to come third would be a disaster. The likelier outcome, a poor second place with 20-25 per cent, would still be terrible. Here is Labour’s recent record in Scotland: 2010 general election—42 per cent; 2011 Scottish Parliament elections—32 per cent; 2015 general election—24 per cent. Labour needs to be climbing back towards 30 per cent before it can claim any real recovery north of the border. In Wales, at the very minimum, Labour needs to retain the 30 (of 60) seats it won last time and not slip back, as has been widely predicted, to 26 or 27.
In recent times, Labour’s leadership has downplayed opinion poll ratings by saying that “real votes” are what matter. They point to Jim McMahon’s big victory last December in the Oldham West and Royton by-election. Let us see whether Corbyn and his party can pass the far bigger “real vote” test in May.
