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Josef Joffepublisher/editor of Die Zeit
Underrated Victory in the Iraq war. Prospect reported it first in an article by Bartle Bull in the October 2007 issue. What sounded outlandish then, is the facts now. Casualty figures for coalition forces and Iraqi civilians have come to one-tenth of what they were in 2005/06, one province after the other has been turned over the Baghdad government—even Anbar, the one of the centres of the Sunni insurgency. Given the political convictions of most of the western media, it is clear why this trend was, and is, underreported: this is a war the US and its allies must not be allowed to win. Yet it is also a professional failure of historical dimensions.
Overrated The Obama election. The adulation of Barack Obama, especially in Europe, signifies the confusion of politics with religion and redemption. Obama—who is most gifted politico of his generation—doesn't deserve this confusion, for "hosannah" inevitably turns into "crucify him." America's next president, who came of political age in the brutal and brutalising politics of Chicago, is no messiah. Politics is about who gets what, when, and where—and about moderation and a quantum of justice. Transcendence is for the next life. In this life, we want to deal with the economic implosion, Afghanistan, energy, and Iranian nukes. So let's give Obama a break.
Tim Judahjournalist
Overrated Fears over Kosovo's independence. For years gloom merchants had predicted that if and when Kosovo declared independence the following would happen: the remaining Serbs would flee and the Serbian enclaves in Kosovo would be snuffed out, that the region would see a new bout of violence, Orthodox monasteries would be torched and that Serbia itself would fall into the hand of extreme nationalists. Kosovo declared independence on 17th February and all of these predictions proved utterly unfounded. The Serbs did not flee and, except for one or two minor bouts, there was no major violence and Serbia's extreme nationalist party, rather than coming to power disintegrated instead. That is not to say that all is fine in Kosovo, but simply that the event turned out to be something of a damp squib. As for Serbia it now has the most powerful and pro-European government in its history.
Oliver Kammwriter & journalist
Underrated PD James's novel The Private Patient. James remains a bestselling novelist, but because she writes in the genre of crime fiction the literary quality of her work is overlooked. Her latest novel meets the first test of a detective novel: it is an ingenious puzzle. But it also illuminates ethical dilemmas, explores the mental lives of its characters and documents the author's own acute social observations.
Overrated Gordon Brown's handling of the financial crisis. The bank rescue was a well designed plan—and was modelled on the precedent of European governments' bailout of Fortis and Dexia. It was not the brainchild of the PM or the chancellor. The tripartite system of financial regulation that Brown introduced a decade ago has proved inadequate and has aggravated the stresses in the financial system.
Terence Kealeybiochemist
Overrated September 10th was big bang day for the media. The BBC covered the inauguration of the Large Hadron Collider experiment over 11 different programmes, including Thought for the Day ("All particles are God's particles"), Woman's Hour ("What switches women on to science?") and Torchwood. The purported purpose of the experiment was to detect a subatomic particle called the Higgs boson. In reality, its purpose was to generate media coverage. The myth is that only governments fund such experiments, but Ernest Lawrence's 1946 cyclotron was built by the Rockefeller Foundation for $1.15m, and further private funds have been only crowded out by governments. In the event, the Collider experiment ended not with a big bang but with a whimper.
Andrew Keeninternet pundit
Underrated 1. The Independent's editorial staff cut (90 editorial) and its move from Canary Wharf to the Daily Mail's building in West Kensington. This is the beginning of a huge shake-out in the British press which will eventually decimate the dailies. Where America goes, Britain follows. The death of the daily broadsheet is now just around the corner (five to ten years).
2. The impact of the economic meltdown on social and cultural harmony. In our culture of incessant democratisation, expect the pesonalised rage of the newly unemployed and impoverished to be filled with particular vitriol. Get ready for fascism 2.0. Why isn't anyone talking about it?
Nicola Laceyprofessor of law
Overrated My main nomination—this year as for many years past—is, simply, crime…
Richard Layardeconomist
Underrated This year has seen a total revolution in Britain's approach to helping those with depression and crippling anxiety. Six million people have these problems, yet until this year only a quarter got treated—mostly with drugs. The Nice guidelines recommend the option of psychological therapy but were largely ignored. This year the government launched a plan to train enough therapists so that within five years people can get the evidence-based help they need. This will do more to reduce misery in our society than any other policy initiative for decades.
Norman Lebrechtarts commentator
Overrated 1. Lang Lang's piano prelude to the Beijing Olympics with a cute little kiddie beside him on the stool—both of them fraudulently miming to a pre-recorded tape.
2. The Edinburgh International Festival. Little there worth rating.
3. The legacy of Herbert von Karajan, whose centenary was marked by a flood of record reissues, pumped-up hagiolatry and no small measure of nostalgia for a miserable pair of cold war decades when most of the classical music one heard on classical radio sounded as if it had been homogenised to conform with Karajan's insidious line of beauty.
Underrated 1. Joseph O'Neill's Netherland, the only longlisted 2008 Booker novel of lasting value—and hence never going to make the cut. Probably the best fiction yet of post-9/11 New York.
2. The Roundhouse in Camden Town, a venue that rescues street kids and stages great gigs.
3. Ronit Elkabetz, the Israeli actress and screenwriter, a commanding presence in her 2008 Mike Leigh-style epic, Seven Days.
Julian Le Grandprofessor of social policy
Overrated The credit crunch. Amid all the dire pronostications, it should not be forgotten that Britain has experienced a growth in real GDP of around 50 per cent since 1992. There is a long way to go before that is reversed. Even now we are not yet in negative growth territory, and the most pessimistic predictions are of a fall of only 2 per cent or 3 per cent. Moreover, there may be some unexpected benefits of a period of austerity. For instance, in the both of the last two recessions (early 1980s and early 1990s), a combination of falling top incomes and the maintenance of benefits for lower incomes meant that relative poverty and income inequality actually fell—in the case of inequality, quite substantially.
Underrated The passing of the Children's and Young Person's Act this month. This contains lots of imaginative ideas for improving child protection. The aim is to improve care through raising social workers' morale, lowering their turnover and generally reversing the dominance of managerialism over professionalism in social work—all factors that contributed to the failures in the case of Baby P.
Yiyun Liwriter
Underrated Media coverage of the earthquake in Sichuan, China in May. The coverage from Chinese media, focusing on the rescue efforts and tragic loss, was extensive. However, the aftermath—investigation of the construction scandal that led to the collapsed school buildings, the rallies of parents who lost their children, and the practice of local government to silence the outcry—was reported by some western newspapers but neglected almost completely by Chinese media, which seems a disappointing if unsurprising setback for the Chinese media.
Overrated In June, the vice chairman of Shandong Province's Writers Association published a poem, written from the point of view of an earthquake victim buried under a crushed building: "Called to by the President and the Premier, and loved by the government and the Communist Party, despite my death I am a happy ghost… All I wish for is a television set in front of my grave, so I could watch the Olympics and hail with my people." The extravaganza of Beijing Olympics and its political and economic significance for the country seemed rather overrated, considering an earthquake victim could be made join the celebration from his grave.
Peter LilleyConservative MP
Underrated 1. Scarcely any one dares mention that over the last 12 months the average temperature—not just here but across the globe—has been back to the level recorded when first satellites started to measure it 30 years ago. Symptomatically, while parliament approved almost unanimously the climate change bill on the assumption that the world was getting warmer it snowed outside for the first time in 70 years. When I pointed this out I was told that extreme cold is a symptom of global warming! Tosh. Not that the apparent pause in warming disproves the green house effect (which is indisputable) but it does show that either the positive feedbacks are smaller than the models assume or that other factors not included in the models are larger than assumed.
2. The other scandalously underreported event was the failure of the Doha round. Billed as the first "development round"which could have offered real hope to developing countries it has been parked out of sight like an unfashionable jalopy.
David Lipseyeconomist
Overrated The economic consequences of the financial crisis. Of course it is early days, but the widely-predicted 1930s style slump seems unlikely. First, the authorities everywhere but particularly in Britain have worked on the whole skilfully to preserve the financial system. Secondly, the slump in asset prices follows a large increase—house prices, for example, are still not lower than they were in 2006. People are not as rich as they were but they are not yet poor. Thirdly, ongoing technical change, and particularly the explosion of chip power, will relatively soon have new entrepreneurs starting new businesses. Indeed long term there is a case that there is nothing the economy needed more than a short, sharp downturn so the new green shoots could come through, though of course that is not to minimise the suffering of those whose jobs go in the meantime.
Underrated The political consequences of the crisis. Again it is early days, so commentators in Britain assume that we can go on with a political system featuring three centrist parties and their broadly consensual agenda. But the direct effect of the crash on political opinion may be dramatic—the anger about city bonuses may be the start of a new egalitarianism. Moreover, and this is less attractive, disillusion with financial markets may be contagious so, for example, the use of market mechanisms to ensure more efficient and equitable delivery of public services becomes moot. And even a short sharp slump could lead to a short sharp rise in unemployment—new grist to the BNP's mill. Do not be surprised if politics turns rather unpleasant.
John Lloydjournalist
Overrated The Jonathan Ross/Russell Brand incident. Russ and especially Brand live in a world where sexual boasting, obscenities and cruel humour are a stock in trade: and that the object of their joke was a Satanic Slut made them feel, reasonably, that this world would contain it. As Barbara Palliser, who runs a website called Silverwheel Astrologer, wisely put it: "Lest we forget, the girl at the centre of it all, who became the embodiment of moral outrage on behalf of all 'right-minded' citizens everywhere whose sense of public decency felt affronted, is a 'burlesque' dancer (which I thought was a stripper who was a bit snobby about the word stripper). Her troupe is named 'Satanic Sluts Extreme,' and Extreme Slut Georgina, 23, unfortunately seems like one of those women for whom sex HAS to be linked to the devil, the darkness, and kissing other girls (only when men are looking though) in order to allow herself to feel sexually attractive. Each to their own of course, it's just I don't think in reality her grandad would have been ever so shocked and surprised to find that brouhaha of this news-story nature vortexes around her; it's just part of the process isn't it, if you think sex is a power trip, and female sexuality akin to a black pvc studded handbag packed to the zips with whips, chains and Anne Rice novels, which only has value when swirled nosily and heavily around in everyone's faces, then you are kind of leaving yourself open to be heckled by the Russell Brands of this world."
James Lovelockenvironmentalist
Underrated 1. Green absurdities, in particular the so called renewables obligation and the requirement to take ten years examining the safety of a new nuclear power station built exactly to the same design as one already approved in other European nations. These obligations will cost us dearly in lost opportunities, ruin what remains of our coast and countryside, and benefit a sleazy bunch of developers.
2. Rarely ever mentioned is the amazing persistence of the decency and good behaviour of almost everyone everywhere. The bad behaviour is noticed because of its rarity. Where for example were the riots against bans on smoking? Nicotine addiction is the most difficult of all drug addictions to overcome: amazing was the quiet compliance with the bans.
Edward Luttwakmilitary strategist & writer
Overrated Barack Obama's election. Many Americans and probably more non-Americans reacted to Obama's election with unbounded enthusiasm and the highest expectations of "change." There was also the promise of a more "diverse" administration—though I could not think why, given the unselfconscious Bush inclusion of some whites in his Hispano-Black-Chinese cabinet. I was wrong. With Obama there is indeed diversity: some of his appointees went to Harvard for their first degree and to Yale for the second, while the others went to Yale for their first degree and to Harvard for the second.
In theory there is still much room for change. The strategic decisions of US presidents can supposedly change the course of world affairs—it happened with Truman, who created Nato to contain Stalin's Soviet Union, and with Reagan who presided over its peaceful disassembly. But both were uncommon presidents in their refusal of conventional wisdoms. Mostly, US presidents stand around looking busy while others make the decisions. It was the Japanese and not FDR who belatedly engaged the US in the second world war, while Kennedy's only role in the consolidation of a Communist Cuba that lingers still was the indecisiveness typical of overly deliberate decision-makers. Nor did Jimmy Carter contribute more than his prissy, priggish and preachy incapacity to the emergence of the extremist clerical regime of Iran, while Clinton did nothing much except allow Richard Holbrooke to resist Serbia—he notably refused to allow commando raids against al Qaeda in Afghanistan when they might still have done some good. Likewise it was Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait that forced President Bush Sr to fight his intended ally—Brent Scowcroft's policy studies had identified Iraq as the right strategic partner for new Arab-centric policies. By contrast Bush Jr did make the strategic decisions to occupy Afghanistan and Iraq instead of just hunting down the respective bad guys—both errors, in contrast to the global success of his campaign against jihadism. Now Obama's big change will come: he wants to redeploy troops from cooling down Iraq to heating up Afghanistan, though the likely increase in casualties may not quite correspond to his supporters' idea of change.
But given the present crisis, Obama will be judged mostly on his economic decisions. So far, his hyper-conventional-wisdom advisers seem determined to repeat Japan's après-boom errors: one per cent interest rates (they kill retiree demand), no big-boy bankruptcies (no cheap starts for new firms), public works (much spending, few jobs). Strategic errors may not show up for years but Obama's economic policies will be judged some 18 months from now, ahead of the November 2010 elections. Palin's "real change" 2012 campaign will be next.
Denis MacshaneLabour MP
Underrated The return of Baghdad as a nearly normal city. After five years of Islamist-on-Islamist killing is the Iraqi capital turning the corner?
Adam Mareknovelist
Overrated The Large Hadron Collider, which would either destroy the Earth by sucking it into a black hole, or give us the great theory of everything. That's one hell of a coin flip. But the world's biggest and most expensive experiment broke down before we could see which way it would go. We'll have to wait until spring 2009 to see if it's heads or tails.
Underrated 1. Monkey, journey to the west, Damon Albarn and Jamie Hewlett's Chinese electro-opera circus kung fu spectacular.Go see it, I tell them. As soon as you can; it's got flying girls and singing demons.
2. Heroes—the only show I ache for if I miss it. I haven't wanted to fire lightning bolts from my hands so much since I was ten.
Jean McCrindlewriter
Underrated 1. The outstanding musical events of the year for me were the German baritone Matthias Goerne singing songs by Shostakovich, Wolf and Brahms to a tiny audience at the Queen Elizabeth Hall. Goerne sings with his whole body, grasping the piano and looking like a serpent at the mercy of the music. Also the concert performance of La Clemenza di Tito at the Barbican with Alice Coote and Toby Spence, both singers at the height of their powers moving me and everyone around me to tears.
2. The ten minute slot I try never to miss on Radio 4 on a Sunday called Point of View has had among others Clive James, always an original take on the news of the moment; Katharine Whitehorn a wise and witty voice from the past; and Lucy Kellaway giving me a sense of contemporary younger women's divided lives.
3. Fiona Shaw has proved me wrong about theatre directors moving into Opera production. Her Riders to the Sea at the ENO was flawless bringing out a subtle feminist insight into a play/short opera written by two men famously preoccupied by death and the sea. The sets, the orchestra, the singing, the lighting and the atmosphere of the one hour evening—I'll not see it done better.
Anne McElvoyjournalist
Overrated The Gordon Brown resurrection at Glenrothes. The significant thing was Labour losing Glasgow East, not the holding of Glenrothes. To win again Brown needs to reconvert the south and prosperous marginals in the Midlands and north west, a tougher challenge holding down a neighbouring Scottish seat with a Labour tradition.
Underrated Unrelated. First decent British film dissectig the mores of the upper middle class en vacances with horrible accuracy. Appalling teenagers, ghastly parents disporting selves in Italian countryside. Most queasily enjoyable film of the year—and thus removed from British cinemas after about a week and a half.
Robert McFarlandwriter
Underrated 1. The power of received wisdom is stifling the debate about man's contribution to climate change and what constitutes a sensible policy response. The former chancellor Nigel Lawson's polemic An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming is moderate and cogent, arguing the case for adaptation rather than pursuing the chimera of international agreement on massive emission reduction. Butthe reviews were few and the key arguments seemingly wilfully misunderstood. It leaves public discourse still dominated by the quasi-religious view of climate change as the agent of Armageddon for a wicked world.
2. Why is it that the development of our aural sensibility lags behind our visual? We flock to the Tate to marvel at cracks in the floor, Britart, and Turner prize shows, but are almost universally resistant to contemporary classical music. We are enjoying a rare flowering of internationally regarded British composers: Birtwistle, Benjamin, Knussen, Harvey, Ades, plus a host of talented younger figures. Yet when Harrison Birtwistle's latest opera, The Minotaur, was given its premier at Covent Garden in a production that as well as the music had something for everyone: a brilliant libretto, dance, colour and passion, the truth that here was a masterpiece hardly registered.
Iain McLeanprofessor of politics
Underrated Publication of the white paper on Lords reform: An elected second chamber. Most commentary stopped when the pundits noticed that it has been pushed back beyond the next general election. D-oh. Of course it has. Lords reform requires Lords' assent: it can't be pushed through under the Parliament Act before the election. If all parties adhere to their promises to put an elected upper house in their manifestoes, we might get one step closer to popular sovereignty in our lifetimes. The unelected Lords would not block a reform supported by all the main parties in the Commons. Once two out of the three houses of the Queen-in-Parliament (as lawyers call it) are elected, only one is left. Roll on an elected head of state (maybe not in our time).
George Monbiotjournalist & activist
Underrated Publication of the first peer-reviewed papers showing that methane is escaping from the Arctic permafrost. This suggests that the critical climate feedback processes have begun, which means that it will now be much harder to stop runaway global warming.
Overrated Mamma Mia! Nursery tunes with Eurenglish lyrics which most of us had gratefully forgotten stitched together into a wretched excuse for a story, brought to death by some of the worst performances ever to disfigure the silver screen. I felt like a visitor from an alien planet, as everyone else seemed to love it.
Anshuman Mondallecturer in literature
Overrated Salman Rushdie's The Enchantress of Florence. When John Sutherland said Rushdie's novel "rocks" he must have been off his rocker. Yes, it's an improvement on his three previous disasters, insofar as it's readable, but the theme of east and west being mirrors of each other is hackneyed now.
Underrated 1. If you truly want to understand the complexity of east-west relations (and the distant origins of the current problem with poppy production in Afghanistan), read Amitav Ghosh's Sea of Poppies. OK, it was on the Booker shortlist, but it should have won. All his career, Ghosh has fictively mapped the many dimensions of "Asia." He is a good Virgil for the forthcoming "Asian century."
2. Mark Ramprakash for scoring 100 first class centuries. We'll never see it done again.
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Prospect's "overrated and underrated" events of the year are divided alphabetically, by author surname, into four parts: click here to read parts one, two, three and four.
