Shortly before David Cameron stood up in the House of Commons to give his crucial statement to MPs on the Europe deal, one loyal former Cabinet minister sent a text message to the Prime Minister’s mobile phone. “Firm but gentle with colleagues,” it read. The Tory leader replied that he understood and would try to follow the advice. Within weeks, though, he was sneering at Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Conservative Eurosceptic MP, accusing him of spreading a “scare story” about the European Union, his furious manner a stark contrast to the calm courtesy of the pin-striped backbencher. It was just one sign of the increasingly poisonous mood within the Conservative Party ahead of the EU referendum on 23rd June.
As the campaign enters its final phase, Cabinet ministers are competing to contradict each other on television and radio. Political friendships are fracturing, discipline is breaking down, civility evaporating. The toxic issue of Europe is yet again spreading its venom through the Tory ranks. Although Britain is voting about whether to stay in the EU or leave, the future of the Conservative Party is also at stake, with some MPs privately questioning whether it can survive this shock to unity. “It’s pretty bad,” says one grandee. “What’s been shown is that feelings run very deep and when it’s over it will be very difficult. The Tory Party is tottering.”
The irony, of course, is that Cameron only ever called this referendum in an attempt to keep his party together in the face of a perceived Ukip threat. A senior Japanese businessman who has lived in London told an MP recently that the whole thing was “masturbation—it’s all to do with the Conservative Party not the country.” The leader who promised to stop the Tories “banging on about Europe” has created the conditions in which they are not only banging on about it, they are beating each other up over the issue too—in some cases almost literally. One minister says that an “Outer” tried to trip him up in the members’ lobby after he announced that he was backing “Remain.” Another blanked him, refusing to say goodnight. “There is a lot of anger especially among the older guard,” he says. “I’ve been surprised how quickly it’s become so divisive and how rancid the whole atmosphere is. The wounds are fetid because they go back a long way.”
During the Maastricht rebellion in the 1990s—when John Major railed against the Eurosceptic “bastards”—only a handful of MPs actually wanted to leave the EU. Now almost half of the Parliamentary Party and a majority of activists disagree with their leader and favour Brexit. The referendum has acted as a catalyst for a wider sense of disillusionment among rebellious MPs. As one minister puts it: “The Europe issue gives a license to disgruntled opposition—that which was mumbled in the tea room becomes legitimised.” The Prime Minister’s handling of the campaign has not helped—there is particular irritation about the use of public money to fund the “In” leaflet. “If there is a ‘remain’ vote, the ‘we woz robbed’ mood is going to grow and it will be a real problem for Cameron,” says one senior MP. “People will feel cheated. There will be a vile atmosphere.”
To make matters worse, disunity over Europe has spread to the government’s wider domestic policy. Eurosceptic MPs came close to questioning George Osborne’s economic competence after he published the Treasury dossier claiming Brexit would cost every household £4,300. To the fury of Downing Street, Vote Leave has also dragged the public services into the debate, claiming that the NHS is at risk from the EU. In Westminster, the political tensions have quickly become personal. “The tea room is rife with stories of slightly offensive off-hand cold, aloof responses,” says an influential backbencher. “Cameron and Osborne take opposition very personally. There’s no grace under pressure. They manage to fight their way out of a corner but they do it kicking and biting and scratching. The only advantage they have is that their opponents are more like a surly mob than an organised army and they all hate each other as well.”
What happens after 23rd June depends on the precise result. One former Cabinet minister predicts: “If the referendum is lost for the government, it’s armageddon. Cameron’s feet won’t even touch the ground—he would go within hours and we would have Boris leading the party. If ‘Remain’ wins by a narrow margin then the ‘Outers’ won’t accept it, there will be great turbulence within the party. The ‘Inners’ will say accept it or bugger off and you could easily see a realignment of politics, with an alliance between the metropolitan conservative liberal ‘Inners’ and the Blairites, the old Tory Party joining forces with Ukip standing for ‘Out’ and Jeremy Corbyn leading a left-wing party.”
Senior figures believe that there could be a leadership challenge to Cameron even if he wins the referendum—although he would almost certainly see it off because a majority of MPs would support him. Surviving as Prime Minister, though, is not enough. The Tory leader must reunite his party after a bitter and rancorous few months. Potentially the most dangerous result for party unity would be a narrow majority in favour of “Remain.” As one rebel puts it: “less than 55 per cent is the ‘never ending scenario.’” Already some “Outers” are talking about another referendum if the country decides to stay in the EU. Even pro-Europeans admit there would be “buyer’s remorse.” “The referendum isn’t going to resolve the Europe issue,” says one minister in favour of Brexit. “In the immediate aftermath people would accept that there’s been a referendum, but there will be a moment, whether that’s within six months or three years, where people say: if only...”
Dominic Cummings, campaign director of Vote Leave, says Europe will continue to be a problem for the Tories unless the country gets out of the EU. “Disraeli said the Conservative Party is either a national party or it’s nothing. How can you be that if you have no control over large swathes of national life? There’s a good reason why there’s been an existential problem for the party. I am not a Conservative but I hope that an effect of a ‘Leave’ vote is that it changes the Party considerably and makes people focus much more on the whole country—there are too many people in SW1 who look only at the interests of richer people and I believe all parties have to transform.”
"The only advantage Cameron and Osborne have is that their opponents are like a surly mob... and they all hate each other"Some MPs believe that a Tory split is possible, with hardcore Eurosceptics going off to form a new party which, said one, would be like a diluted version of Ukip. “If you could shake off the posh boys you could recruit like there’s no tomorrow. You could suddenly see a breakthrough for a sans culottes non-metropolitan, provincial, lower-middle-class meritocratic party, hoovering up county Tories from Ukip and some tough-minded work-orientated Labour voters.”
Others, though, dismiss such apocalyptic talk. Nicholas Soames, the pro-European backbencher, insists there is “no civil war” among Conservatives. “It’s a fundamental argument but I’ve got friends on both sides and we all rub along. I predict that whatever happens the party will come back together. Events are going to smooth things over.” A Cabinet minister argues that political reality will kick in. “There is a fear among Tories that if we are divided then Corbyn will be able to pull off a Green, red, SNP coalition. The fear of that should act as a glue.”
Friends of Cameron are already thinking about how to “Save Dave” in the critical days after 23rd June. One Cabinet minister says he must show “both a sense of purpose and inclusiveness.” There is a recognition now that the Prime Minister’s statement on the steps of Downing Street after the Scottish referendum—when he promised to force through English votes for English MPs—looked too vindictive. “After the Scottish referendum the principal imperative was party management because so many Conservative MPs were worried that too much had been given to the nationalists during the campaign,” says one senior Tory. “This time magnaminity and party management coincide.”
The post-referendum reshuffle will be critical. An ally of the Prime Minister insists that whatever the result: “his instinct will be that of a healer and conciliator.” There will, though, be a balance to be struck between rewarding those who remained loyal over Europe and bringing the rebels back into the fold. According to one MP, if the Prime Minister wins, he should be “utterly ruthless” to one or two Brexiteers while “cuddling” others. “It’s group psychology, you have got to split your enemies. Those who survive are grateful not to have been killed, you show forgiveness is possible but you have got to brutally murder one or two people, rip out their entrails and hang up their corpses.”
The peace and reconciliation process will not just be about personalities. The Tory leader hopes to draw the party together by focussing on his conference promise to improve “life chances”—with policies on education, employment and prisons. The 2020 Group of modernisers, founded by George Freeman, the Life Sciences Minister, is holding a series of weekly policy discussions between now and the referendum to develop proposals under the “One Nation” theme, consciously bringing together MPs from both sides of the EU debate. Michael Gove has already agreed to speak to the group in May. “The PM’s ‘Life Chances’ mission unites MPs from all parts of the Party, especially in the new generation,” says Freeman. “We are building a strong One Nation alliance based on the importance of free enterprise in driving social mobility.”
In Whitehall, there will be a strong desire to get the process of government back on track. A Brexit minister believes the coalition proves that it is possible for politicians to set aside differing views for a common purpose. “You can—as David did with the Lib Dems—acknowledge that there are going to be flash points on Europe but concentrate on the domestic agenda and get people behind that. It’s not always easy but it’s possible. This will be a coalition of Brexiteers and Remainers.”
Unlike Labour, the Tory Party has always put power above political purity. Michael Heseltine, the former deputy Prime Minister, is convinced that the Conservative will to win will ultimately trump ideological division. “It’s a kaleidoscope. The pieces fall out in different places; some people will disappear but the party will survive,” he says. “This is a very sophisticated political machine in pursuit of power so there will be a way. The party will move on. That’s not to say the Eurosceptics will move on.”
