What must the Paris climate summit achieve?

The greatest diplomatic challenge of our era is the impact of rising greenhouse gases (GHG) through our continued use of fossil fuels and removal of tropical forests. The risk to the stability of the global economy from increased drought in many areas, unexpected flooding in others, lower food production capacity due to crop failures, from deaths due to exposure to high temperatures and from rising sea levels could mean that the present period of conflict is only a beginning.

Perhaps the greatest challenge is that all societies are responsible, and all need to act to reduce the impacts. Recognising this, 21 years ago negotiations were initiated through the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Apart from a commitment to keep the global average temperature rise to no more than 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, little progress has been made. National actions, on an appropriate scale, have been initiated in some countries, and bilateral and multilateral actions have followed. But these alone are not enough—a strong agreement is now needed. Will the 21^st Conference of the Parties (COP), a climate summit to be held in Paris in December this year, prove able to accomplish this?

The British negotiating position is strong. Our own actions to reduce emissions have been substantial, via the first long-term commitment to reduce by 60 per cent by 2050, later increased to 80 per cent, and via actions to meet 4-yearly carbon budgets set by the Climate Change Committee of Parliament. The UK has already reduced emissions, compared with 1990, by 30 per cent, and is on track to reduce by 52 per cent by 2028. The 2008 Act of Parliament gives long-term assurance to this process: present and future governments are committed through this Act.

Through our £4.48bn International Climate Fund, set up 4 years ago, the UK is helping the least developed countries protect the lives and jobs that are most at risk from climate change and to seize the opportunities that a low carbon economy can bring. And we have backed the 2015 New York Forests Declaration, together with Norway and Germany. To date 37 forested nations have signed up to this commitment meaning that deforestation of natural forests would have come to an end by 2030, and reforestation will cover an area about the size of India. The impressive UK international development budget, operated by Justine Greening and her team in DFID, is committed to aid for development with climate resilience, largely to the least developed countries.

Our negotiating position is therefore strong, and is backed up by Climate Attaches and Ambassadors in our embassies around the world. In the two years I have been in post I have held high-level bilateral discussions carried out over 60 country visits. In addition, in the last 12 months we have taken a further step, conducting a global "climate risk assessment" with senior colleagues from a range of countries, particularly China, India, the USA and the UK. This is a sobering study. By taking an insurer’s approach to risk and using widely available climate data summarized by the IPCC 5^th report, we analysed what the probabilities of extreme events, such as the failure of major rice crops in China, during and beyond this century. This report was a wake-up call to all the participants, including political advisers, generals, admirals, and scientists, and should be absorbed by all political leaders.

There is now real momentum behind action on climate change. Over 120 heads of government spoke at Ban Ki Moon’s meeting on the topic in September 2014. The Pope’s 2015 Encyclical on climate change was a clear call for action. President Obama has brought the USA into leadership on calls for action, and his State Secretary John Kerry is an informed and persuasive advocate for decisive action around the world. The Chinese leadership is acting through a set of world-leading initiatives on the development of affordable renewable energy sources, and reduction in coal usage. The G7 made its strongest statement on climate change for many years in June 2015, committing to "decarbonisation of the global economy over the course of this century" and giving a green light to the British-led proposal for a mission oriented surge in RD&D investment to create competitive renewable energy for the whole world.

Fossil fuel subsidies are reducing in many countries, particularly in India and Indonesia. Existing energy efficiency measures have brought about a twofold improvement globally compared to the historical record. In 2014 GHG emissions from the global energy sector stalled for the first time in 40 years, while the world economy grew by 3 per cent. China’s coal consumption fell by 2.8 per cent in 2014, and is set to fall again this year. Last year new energy capacity from renewables reached 50 per cent, and the IEA estimates that on current trends more electricity will be produced from renewables than from fossil fuels by 2030.

The climate change challenge is already being taken up by countries around the world, spurred by bilateral and multilateral government actions, by leaders from the private sector, and by NGOs and the public. It will not be solved by the meeting in Paris this year alone, but success at that meeting remains important in continuing the momentum after Paris.

What do I mean by success? A legally binding agreement by all countries, based on each country making its own national commitment; an agreement which is regularly reviewed to manage the target of no more than 2 degrees C rise; and an agreement that provides support to those who need it, particularly the poorest and most vulnerable, to develop their climate resilience. I believe that an agreement in this form will be reached in Paris.

There are however two major risks in the aftermath of Paris. The first arises because the country-by-country pledges to action will be insufficient alone to meet the 2 deg C objective. This could be read by NGOs and the media as another UN failure, which is what the climate deniers are hoping for. But that would be to misread the underlying momentum in the shift away from fossil fuels, and to ignore the importance of the roll-out of competitively priced renewable sources and the reviewability built in to the agreement. The second risk is that the world political leadership—and the media—announce "job done" and shift resources and effort to short term demands and interests.

Paris must be the signal for renewed effort in this critical shift away from the potential disasters for us all from continued GHG emissions.