After the Greek referendum result yesterday Tsipras tweeted that the "No" vote was not a rejection of Europe but rather a mandate that strengthened his negotiating position. The fact that he continues to enjoy the tactical advantage was confirmed this morning by the spectacle of various senior euroland figures rapidly rowing back from the "No means out" position they occupied as recently as Saturday when their primary objective was still to influence the referendum outcome.
Notwithstanding this reverse the Greek crisis has made explicit what was always implicit in the euro compact; national sovereignty is subordinate to a higher power. Whether this is “democratic” or not depends on where you draw the boundaries of the relevant constituency. There is no doubt that the majority in Northern Ireland want to remain part of the United Kingdom. It is also true that the majority of people in a combination of the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland favour a united Ireland. An analogous clash of democracies exists within Europe.
It has long been obvious that membership of the eurozone means that monetary policy is outside national control. What Greece is discovering is that there are circumstances in which even the detail of tax and welfare policies are decided by the non-elected representatives of a foreign power. The “mainstream” political parties in the eurozone represent a quite narrow electoral choice. If electing a radical government, as Greece did with Syriza, and then confirming its anti-austerity mandate with a referendum proves to make no difference then the myth of national democracy is well and truly exposed.
Britain, of course, is not a member of the eurozone, has its own Central Bank and consequently has discretion over not only fiscal policy but also interest rates and its exchange rate. Compared to those enjoyed by eurozone members these are vast freedoms. Nevertheless, national sovereignty and Britain’s relationship with Europe is a live debate and the Greek crisis serves to bring it into sharper relief.
Most obviously Greece’s troubles are a reminder, were one needed, that Europe is not a happy family. “Brexit” is still an unlikely result in a British referendum but what are likely to be ever more ugly scenes will strengthen the arguments of those who would like to redefine Britain’s relationship with the eurozone. Indeed from Britain’s point of view the most likely outcome is to increase the constituency for returning powers from Brussels. It will take something more than Greece to tip the balance in favour of leaving.
That something is what is occupying rapt attention from Europe’s political establishment. In spite of a worse than expected result for the Front National in this spring’s regional elections Marine Le Pen remains a formidably popular politician often leading the polls as the next President of France. The last time that the FN (then led by her father Jean Marie le Pen) made it through the first round the anti FN vote was prepared to rally behind Chirac. Such an outcome is less certain this time.The European political establishment will have listened with dismay to Le Pen heralding the Greek referendum result as a victory over "the oligarchy of the European Union". A Marine le Pen Presidency in 2017 is an existential threat to the European project compared to which Greece is a sideshow.
