This piece is a response to John Kay's essay on Heathrow in the October issue of Prospect
John Kay’s piece on the case for expanding Heathrow is another interesting perspective on this important debate. Kay raises some good points but he doesn’t cover the importance of air freight, nor the basics of how hub airports work or the role that Heathrow plays as a piece of national infrastructure. It also relies on assumptions the Airports Commission rejected as part of their comprehensive three year investigation into the future aviation needs of the UK.
Only six airports in the world have regular flights to over 50 long haul destinations. Heathrow has 82 which shows how unique and valuable it is. As the UK’s only hub airport, Heathrow is a national asset that benefits passengers, airlines and business because it brings domestic traffic (those from the capital and UK regions) together with short haul traffic (European airports) and freight to ensure more people and goods are pooled together. That is why four out of five of all UK long haul flights are from Heathrow and why long haul routes at other London airports have struggled to become sustainable.
Heathrow has around 140 flights a day to the US, which makes Britain the best place in Europe for US companies to do business. It has regular flights to the great trading centres of the world—three a day to Shanghai, seven to Hong Kong—and in the evenings, every half hour to JFK. Heathrow is a piece of critical infrastructure that puts Britain right at the heart of the global economy, and allows it to be one of the world’s great trading nations. And Heathrow benefits the whole of the UK, not just the South East. For instance with up to 9 flights a day to Aberdeen, Heathrow connect Scotland’s oil industry with its markets in Houston, Baku, Kuwait or Lagos.
Heathrow is not only the UK’s global gateway; it is the country’s biggest port, handling over a quarter of exports by value—from British-made pharmaceuticals sent to third world countries, high tech components for Formula 1 cars and high quality fresh salmon to China. But with Heathrow at capacity, Britain is slipping behind international competitors. At the start of this year, Heathrow was the best connected airport in the world and the busiest for international passengers. In Q1, Dubai overtook Heathrow for the first time on international passengers. In Q2, Paris overtook Heathrow for the number of long haul destinations served.
Airports across the UK are going from strength to strength. But as the UK’s only hub airport, Heathrow complements that success—where a direct flight from a regional airport isn’t available, it fills the gaps to reach the new and prosperous markets the UK needs. Heathrow’s competitors aren’t Gatwick or Manchester. It’s Schiphol, Frankfurt and Charles de Gaulle. With Heathrow full for the last decade, the UK has been essentially encouraging overseas airlines to fly from other London airports for the last decade. But that hasn't worked. If airlines can’t fly to Heathrow, they mostly opt to “hub” from Paris, Amsterdam or Frankfurt.
In January this year, Vietnam Airlines became the 22nd long-haul airline to leave Gatwick for Heathrow since 2008, following Air China, US Airways and Korean Air. This means that Gatwick supports fewer long than it did in 2008. The aviation debate isn’t just about laying concrete—the UK is full of runways with enough point-to-point capacity to last 100 years. Despite Kay’s arguments, this debate is about how the UK maintains its status as a global aviation hub.
The UK is already feeling the consequences of Heathrow’s capacity constraint: France has 1,200,000 Chinese tourists arriving by air. The UK has 200,000—the same as the Dutch, a country a third of its size. Heathrow is the UK’s biggest port by value yet Frankfurt exports six times as much by air to China. The UK cannot defy economic gravity: fewer connections mean fewer exports and less inward investment. And as long as Britain has fewer flights to China than its European neighbours, the country will continue to fall behind.
Critically, an expanded Heathrow would be a significant boost for the UK’s manufacturing sector, which is responsible for over half of all British exports. This goes some way to explain why the Commission’s analysis found that of the almost 180,000 jobs expansion would generate; over half would be in the manufacturing sector. Last month, figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed manufacturing output in the UK remains 5.5 per cent below its level on the eve of the 2008 economic recession. Recent research by BIS and the Government Office for Science predicts that manufacturing in 2050 will look very different from today, and will be virtually unrecognisable from that of 30 years ago. A reliance on air freight will be key and faster more efficient cargo movements at a hub will improve the UK’s export competitiveness and maximise economic benefits.
Heathrow does not stand in the way of UK airports securing their own direct connections where demand exists. But the UK deserves better than to rely on infrequent and low quality connections to hub airports in Europe and the Middle East let alone be reliant on the commercial decisions of overseas airlines and airports for their global connectivity.
It is in the long term interests of the UK if it is able to determine the future of its own trading routes, but it can only do so if Heathrow expands. International competition for jobs and trade has never been more intense. As the Airports Commission noted "further delay will be increasingly costly and will be seen, nationally and internationally, as a sign that the UK is unwilling or unable to take the steps needed to maintain its position as a well-connected open trading economy in the twenty first century."
John Kay’s piece on the case for expanding Heathrow is another interesting perspective on this important debate. Kay raises some good points but he doesn’t cover the importance of air freight, nor the basics of how hub airports work or the role that Heathrow plays as a piece of national infrastructure. It also relies on assumptions the Airports Commission rejected as part of their comprehensive three year investigation into the future aviation needs of the UK.
Only six airports in the world have regular flights to over 50 long haul destinations. Heathrow has 82 which shows how unique and valuable it is. As the UK’s only hub airport, Heathrow is a national asset that benefits passengers, airlines and business because it brings domestic traffic (those from the capital and UK regions) together with short haul traffic (European airports) and freight to ensure more people and goods are pooled together. That is why four out of five of all UK long haul flights are from Heathrow and why long haul routes at other London airports have struggled to become sustainable.
Heathrow has around 140 flights a day to the US, which makes Britain the best place in Europe for US companies to do business. It has regular flights to the great trading centres of the world—three a day to Shanghai, seven to Hong Kong—and in the evenings, every half hour to JFK. Heathrow is a piece of critical infrastructure that puts Britain right at the heart of the global economy, and allows it to be one of the world’s great trading nations. And Heathrow benefits the whole of the UK, not just the South East. For instance with up to 9 flights a day to Aberdeen, Heathrow connect Scotland’s oil industry with its markets in Houston, Baku, Kuwait or Lagos.
Heathrow is not only the UK’s global gateway; it is the country’s biggest port, handling over a quarter of exports by value—from British-made pharmaceuticals sent to third world countries, high tech components for Formula 1 cars and high quality fresh salmon to China. But with Heathrow at capacity, Britain is slipping behind international competitors. At the start of this year, Heathrow was the best connected airport in the world and the busiest for international passengers. In Q1, Dubai overtook Heathrow for the first time on international passengers. In Q2, Paris overtook Heathrow for the number of long haul destinations served.
Airports across the UK are going from strength to strength. But as the UK’s only hub airport, Heathrow complements that success—where a direct flight from a regional airport isn’t available, it fills the gaps to reach the new and prosperous markets the UK needs. Heathrow’s competitors aren’t Gatwick or Manchester. It’s Schiphol, Frankfurt and Charles de Gaulle. With Heathrow full for the last decade, the UK has been essentially encouraging overseas airlines to fly from other London airports for the last decade. But that hasn't worked. If airlines can’t fly to Heathrow, they mostly opt to “hub” from Paris, Amsterdam or Frankfurt.
In January this year, Vietnam Airlines became the 22nd long-haul airline to leave Gatwick for Heathrow since 2008, following Air China, US Airways and Korean Air. This means that Gatwick supports fewer long than it did in 2008. The aviation debate isn’t just about laying concrete—the UK is full of runways with enough point-to-point capacity to last 100 years. Despite Kay’s arguments, this debate is about how the UK maintains its status as a global aviation hub.
The UK is already feeling the consequences of Heathrow’s capacity constraint: France has 1,200,000 Chinese tourists arriving by air. The UK has 200,000—the same as the Dutch, a country a third of its size. Heathrow is the UK’s biggest port by value yet Frankfurt exports six times as much by air to China. The UK cannot defy economic gravity: fewer connections mean fewer exports and less inward investment. And as long as Britain has fewer flights to China than its European neighbours, the country will continue to fall behind.
Critically, an expanded Heathrow would be a significant boost for the UK’s manufacturing sector, which is responsible for over half of all British exports. This goes some way to explain why the Commission’s analysis found that of the almost 180,000 jobs expansion would generate; over half would be in the manufacturing sector. Last month, figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed manufacturing output in the UK remains 5.5 per cent below its level on the eve of the 2008 economic recession. Recent research by BIS and the Government Office for Science predicts that manufacturing in 2050 will look very different from today, and will be virtually unrecognisable from that of 30 years ago. A reliance on air freight will be key and faster more efficient cargo movements at a hub will improve the UK’s export competitiveness and maximise economic benefits.
Heathrow does not stand in the way of UK airports securing their own direct connections where demand exists. But the UK deserves better than to rely on infrequent and low quality connections to hub airports in Europe and the Middle East let alone be reliant on the commercial decisions of overseas airlines and airports for their global connectivity.
It is in the long term interests of the UK if it is able to determine the future of its own trading routes, but it can only do so if Heathrow expands. International competition for jobs and trade has never been more intense. As the Airports Commission noted "further delay will be increasingly costly and will be seen, nationally and internationally, as a sign that the UK is unwilling or unable to take the steps needed to maintain its position as a well-connected open trading economy in the twenty first century."
